What about President Yanukovych’s cherished dream?

If one were to trust Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov’s arithmetic, President Viktor Yanukovych will not sign the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement. On the other hand, Yanukovych’s Ukrainian version of the State of the Union left more questions than answers. European Commissioner for Enlargement and Neighborhood Policy Stefan Fuele was the first to lash out at Azarov’s rhetoric, saying he had heard of varying sums over the past couple of days and hours, including about Ukraine being in need of some 20 billion dollars in order to adjust to the European standards; that this was nonsense; that he recognized no such figures and did not know where they came from. He added that Kyiv had forwarded no formal requests for compensation in case of signing the Association Agreement and ruled out the possibility of such compensation package talks being held without his knowledge and consent, assuring that this was part of his jurisdiction, so he couldn’t understand what kind of humiliating haggling the opposition was shouting about over there on the Maidan, just as he couldn’t figure out the source of such data.

President Yanukovych has raised even more questions by his conduct. It all started with his speech in Vienna, just as his Cabinet was adopting a resolution meant to actually freeze Ukraine’s European integration. He spoke in Vienna, assuring Europe that Ukraine would never alter its European course – i.e., its EU membership. Followed three days of silence (“days-off” as jokingly described on the Maidan). Experts are trying to figure out a signal there, saying there was a test of strength for Ukraine’s political response – and of the strength of Europe’s political purse. Media reports pointed to haggling being underway in Brussels, referring to an anonymous source in the Presidential Administration of Ukraine; that all that was going on was a stake-everything game, with parliament screwing up the vote, although that wasn’t enough to make people step out onto the street; above all, that was meant to show Europe – and Russia – that percentage of support of European integration with which various polls had been juggling. That was how the Cabinet resolution came to be. The Euromaidan was the joker in Yanukovych’s pack which he would use playing with Europe and the Russian Federation. The Ukrainian Cabinet’s scandalous resolution was that very pause, that very door through which Yanukovych could lead Ukraine and make it an associate member of the European Union. Allegedly, the scenario would be as follows: if and when Ukraine won the talks with the EU, an extraordinary session of the Verkhovna Rada would be convened, come Tuesday-Wednesday, that would pass all the required European bills, whereupon the Cabinet would be dismissed, in retaliation for abuse of office, and the president would sign the Association Agreement in Vilnius on Friday. Otherwise what? Even experts tend to touch wood and say nothing two days before the Vilnius Summit. There will be a press conference on November 29. The president has kept silent these past several days, so why jump the gun the next couple of days?

Viktor Yanukovych could also have Plan B. He may know something that will help his cherished dream come true. Otherwise his message to the nation, (especially the passage that reads: “…as president, I wish to assure the Ukrainian citizens that I will continue to build and strengthen these undeniable foundations of our life. No one shall steal our dream of Ukraine [as a country] of equal opportunity, of a European Ukraine. Likewise, no one will push us off the right path that leads to this dream…”) is just words.

 COMMENTARIES

Andrii NOVAK, Chairman, Committee of Economists of Ukraine:

“The Ukrainian Cabinet suspending the process of signing the Association Agreement is a formality. I can only explain it as a sequel to the economic and political haggling process. The political aspect is releasing Tymoshenko from jail. The economic one is loans or financial aid.

“I mean not only direct assistance, but above all keeping up cooperation with the IMF, particularly more or less sizable tranches that can be received as soon as absolutely possible. The Ukrainian administration has to patch up two big holes in the central budget, and do so forthwith. The first one concerns the government and the second one concerns the stock of gold of the National Bank. The government needs money to cover the central budget deficit, even the social items, whereas the National Bank must replenish its stock of gold which is dangerously close to the minimum critical level.

“This haggling is in its final phase. Should the EU and IMF take into consideration the current status of governance in Ukraine and make certain financial commitments and provide guarantees, the head of Ukrainian state would sign the agreement in Vilnius. In the absence of such guarantees, Ukraine would continue haggling during subsequent EU summits.”

Oleksandr PASKHAVER, president, Economic Development Center:

“I can’t foresee the outcome of the Summit. All I can say is that the mass rally in Kyiv was a big surprise for me, most other experts, as well as for President Yanukovych and most EU officials. This is a very strong argument. Our president could actually regard it as support of his stand in signing the Association agreement – but that depends on how he sees it. I don’t know how all this will end. I believe that the idea that such public rallies are in support of the president’s stand would be very productive and perhaps top the current [domestic political] agenda.

“I think that this is a key to the understanding of whether those ‘upstairs’ responsible for this pause in Ukraine’s European integration will be replaced. Here everything depends on the scope of such rallies. It is important to know how our younger generation will respond. Today I learned that two large Kyiv institutions of higher learning are on strike, namely the Kyiv Mohyla Academy and the Taras Shevchenko National University. This means that events are taking a somewhat different course. This spells thousands of young activists who are apparently supported by the administration of their education establishments. In other words, all will depend on the course events will take in the near future. Anyway, students on strike are sending a very strong signal.”