Western leaders isolated Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit
What should Ukraine expect from the Russian leader now?
Steven PIFER, former US Ambassador (1998-2000) to Ukraine:
“During the G20 summit in Australia, Western leaders were very clear about Russia’s responsibility for fueling the conflict in eastern Ukraine, about the need for Moscow to change its current policy, and about the continuation – and perhaps increase – of Western sanctions unless the Kremlin changes course. If Mr. Putin came to Brisbane hoping to find differences among Western leaders on Ukraine, he left disappointed in that regard. His early departure from the summit reflects that. Yes, Mr. Putin had a long flight home, but so did most other G20 leaders.
“Western leaders at the G20 took a firm and unified stand, though I am not sure that will produce an immediate change in Mr. Putin’s Ukraine policy. But the Russian president has to calculate that his current policy will mean continued, if not greater, sanctions, which are having an impact on the Russian economy. Convincing Mr. Putin that the sanctions can apply for many months, if not years, is an important element of making Western policy succeed.
“As for Mr. Kissinger’s statement on Ukraine and NATO, Ukraine should and will decide its own policy regarding NATO. NATO countries will then decide how they wish to respond. At this point, however, I don’t think it would make sense for Kyiv to try to push toward membership. There would be little appetite within the Alliance for putting Ukraine on a membership track, and such a foreign policy goal would presumably make it harder to pull eastern Ukraine back toward Kyiv. Cooperation with NATO makes sense; trying to deepen the relationship at this point does not. But that does not seem to be the issue with Russia. President Poroshenko indicated as early as June that deepening links with NATO was not on the table. There is no sign that the Russians ever tried to engage on that point. Russian actions over the past ten months suggest that Moscow is not trying to block just Ukraine’s relationship with NATO, but also its relationship with the European Union.”
John HERBST, former US Ambassador (2003-06) to Ukraine:
“Mr. Putin was unpleasantly surprised by his chilly reception at the G20. He continues to underestimate the unhappiness abroad with his aggression in Ukraine. It is not easy to evaluate the meaning of his words because what he says is designed for political effect. When he considers it useful, he lies. So, all we can conclude is that he said some conciliatory things because he wanted the G20 leaders to stop criticizing his aggression in Ukraine.
“There is little similarity between the situations in Chechnya and the Donbas. In Chechnya, a good number of Chechens revolted against Moscow. In the Donbas, the Kremlin has been conducting a hybrid war. Kremlin professionals ginned up a revolt against Kyiv.
“As for Mr. Kissinger’s suggestion, it ignores the fact that this crisis began because the Kremlin objected to Ukraine signing a trade agreement with the EU. The issue of Ukraine in NATO has been on the back burner since the Bucharest NATO Summit in 2008. Why do we need to talk about this now?”
William TAYLOR, former US Ambassador; president and chief executive officer, United States Institute of Peace, Washington:
“I don’t profess to know what is in Mr. Putin’s mind. He should have, however, gotten the message from the world leaders that his blatant flouting of international law has made him a pariah, that his continuing violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty will ensure continued or increased sanctions – sanctions that are clearly crippling his economy, and that his rejection of Western values has united Western leaders against him. He should conclude that his tactics have backfired and change course.
“Because Ukraine is a sovereign country and is in the best position to decide what is in its own best interest. If Ukraine applies for NATO membership, NATO members will then decide on a response. Mr. Putin’s aggression against Ukraine threatens all of Europe. NATO members could well decide that the best way to deter further Russian aggression is to start Ukraine on a membership action plan. I recall the NATO summit statement in 2008 that said Ukraine would become a member of NATO.”
