Three reasons why Ukraine is important to Canada and what might Canada do

President Yanukovych is pursuing an increasingly repressive course and has now assumed dictatorial powers. He has also concluded an understanding with Russia that surrenders Ukraine’s economic independence and threatens its political independence. His actions can lead to turmoil and perhaps revolt in Ukraine, an indefinite postponement of any return in Ukraine and perhaps Russia to democracy, a shift in the balance of power in Europe, and a period of enmity between the West and Russia.

Since President Yanukovych assumed power in 2010, he has pursued two principal goals – to enrich himself and his family, and to ensure by fair means or foul, his victory in the presidential election in March 2015. He has certainly has accomplished the first goal. In order to achieve his second goal, that of re-election in spite of poll ratings in the mid-teens, he has pursued an increasing oppressive course. He has done away with the rule of law. He and his allies control most of the media. He has harassed the opposition, fixed elections, and dominated parliament by bribes and blackmail.

Faced with the present unrest, on the basis of a dubious vote in parliament, he has acquired dictatorial powers. His security forces can act with impunity; he can ban independent demonstrations; criticism, whether justified or not, can be treated as criminal defamation; the immunity of parliamentarians can be revoked; opposition activities can be criminalized as extremist; organizations supporting them can be banned. The Ministry of Culture has already followed in Stalin’s footsteps by threatening to outlaw the Greek Catholic Church. The Internet is to be controlled; telephone conversations to be overheard, and NGOs receiving outside money are to be treated as foreign agents.

Faced with the danger of currency collapse and sovereign default because of his economic misrule, President Yanukovych has rejected agreements with the EU and the IMF apparently largely because of their conditions of democracy and a free economy. Instead, he has turned to Russia, which has provided short-term credit and reductions in the price of gas, conditional on good behavior. The security and police forces are to co-operate closely. Vast sectors of the Ukrainian economy are to come under joint control. Ukrainian customs regulations are to be aligned with those of Russia’s Customs Union. Free trade agreements with anyone else will require Russian approval. The Russian presence in the Crimea, a territory claimed by Russian nationalists and where Russia has its Back Sea Fleet, is to be increased.

Russia’s goal is to have Ukraine join the Eurasian Customs Union to be formed next year out of the Customs Union, with, Russia hopes, some sovereign powers. Russia has in the past spoken of the bloc having a joint foreign and economic policy towards the outside world. Russia would like to see Ukraine also join its Collective Security Organization.

Should Russia succeed in its goals, several things might happen: Ukraine would likely remain in turmoil and revolt; the return of Ukraine and probably Russia to democracy would be delayed. The shift in the balance of power in Europe could be destabilizing in the Baltic, Central Europe and the Balkans. Understandings between Russia and the West could become more difficult – Western consciences would be troubled by oppression in Ukraine; Westerners would experience suspicion and enmity towards Russia.

Canadians feel a sense of solidarity with the opposition in its efforts to restore Ukrainian democracy and independence.

It is difficult from afar to suggest how the conflict in Ukraine might be resolved peacefully. To the extent that it is not too late, the opposition might draw some lessons from the Yugoslav experience in removing Milosevic, notably by restoring the opposition’s initial discipline in avoiding acts of violence that merely serve as pretexts to further repression, and by restricting its demands to objectives that can realistically be expected to be achieved.

Canada and the EU can seek to encourage restraint by the Yanukovych administration and its allies by following the United States’ lead in imposing targeted sanctions against persons suspected of human rights violations. The Canadian foreign minister John Baird has indicated that Canada is now considering the question.

Derek Fraser is Former Ambassador to Ukraine (1998-2001); Associate Fellow, Center for Global Studies; Adjunct Professor of Political Science, University of Victoria