Tillerson’s message and a lasting ceasefire

In the past few days, the US has taken several important steps aimed at stopping the Russian aggression in Ukraine. Firstly, both chambers of Congress – the House of Representatives and the Senate – passed a bill (H.R. 3364 – Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act) to increase sanctions against Russia. President Donald Trump is expected to sign it into law in the immediate future.

Secondly, The Wall Street Journal reports, quoting US government sources, that the US defense and state departments have drawn up a plan to furnish Ukraine with antitank missile systems and other lethal defensive weapons to be used against Russia-backed separatists in the Donbas.

Thirdly, the day before yesterday US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said at a press briefing, the first in the past six months: “We are very consistent in our messages to Russia that Minsk agreements should be reached, they must be implemented, otherwise nothing will be done in the situation in Ukraine.” Besides, the US foreign-affairs chief expressed a hope that, after the appointment of Kurt Volker, an experienced diplomat who knows Russia very well, as special coordinator for Ukraine, the Normandy Format countries will be able, in conjunction with the US, to achieve certain progress in changing the situation in Ukraine and to move towards reaching a true ceasefire after a serious outbreak of violence in eastern Ukraine.

Mykola BELESKOV, analyst, Institute of World Politics, Kyiv:

“The latest statement of the US Secretary of State about Washington’s expectations to achieve a ceasefire on the line of disengagement indicates the consistency of the US attitude to the Ukrainian-Russian conflict. The US has stated clearly again that the conflict cannot be finally resolved without the creation of proper security conditions. Moreover, ceasefire is a fundamental component of the Minsk agreements’ security part, without which the transition to the political part of the agreements is out of the question. Besides, we should not forget that, when Rex Tillerson visited Moscow in April and Kyiv in July, he emphasized that Russia was primarily responsible for creating proper security conditions to settle the conflict. Likewise, the Secretary of State’s statement about ceasefire expectations was essentially addressed to the Kremlin.

“Yet it is rather unlikely that the report of WSJ and USA Today on the plans at the State Department and the Defense Department to supply Ukraine with lethal defensive weapons will force the Kremlin to behave constructively, as far as the achievement of at least a lasing ceasefire in the Donbas is concerned. First of all, these plans have not yet been discussed, let alone approved, at the level of the US National Security Council and the president who will eventually decide on whether to ‘give this plan the green light.’ Even in the best case, it will take certain time from making to fulfilling this decision. But even this is not the main reason why the latest plans of the State Department and the Pentagon will hardly have a real impact on Russia. WSJ said clearly that, even if supplied, the Javelin antitank systems will be deployed a long way from the frontline and Washington will closely watch the use of them. So it is not clear how this lethal defensive armament will influence Russia’s behavior in the Donbas.”