The price of a ceasefire

US President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced the other day that they had reached an agreement on the cessation of fire in Syria from February 27 onwards. It will be recalled that Syria’s government had supported a similar deal a week ago. According to Obama, the top priority in settling the Syria crisis is to receive positive responses from the Syrian regime and opposition, to cause all the parties to the conflict to carry out the agreement, and to focus on destroying ISIS. The Syrian opposition has agreed to halt fire provided humanitarian “conditions,” such as release of prisoners, cessation of civilian shelling, and delivery of relief supplies, are met.

The world is taking a very cautious approach to the new Syria ceasefire deal, for the previous agreement flopped – moreover, the Syrian army continued to advance towards Aleppo after the truce had been announced.

Observers believe that Russia considers the desire of the US and Europe, which is suffering from a refugee crisis and wants to put an end to the Syria conflict as soon as possible, as a chance to change the attitude to itself. The BBC says Russia wants the West to regard it as a solution, not as a problem.

February 8, 2016. Boys run near a hole in the ground after air strikes by pro-Syrian government forces in the rebels-held al-Sakhour neighborhood of Aleppo, Syria / REUTERS photo

COMMENTARIES

Ihor SEMYVOLOS, Executive Director, Center for Middle Eastern Studies:

“This is so far just a prelude to peace process. This announcement seems to be the result of the failure of a Russian strategic plan that envisaged seizure of Aleppo, the advance of Syrian troops to the border with Turkey and, hence, victory in the war. But it is obvious now that these plans have been thwarted and Russia has come under further international pressure over its bombings. It can see that the safety margin it had until now in the Syria war is shrinking fast. Meanwhile, the Syria army is not exactly showing the wonders of heroism and begins to retreat once it loses air support. On the other hand, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are showing readiness for independent actions in the region. This has increased the danger of a full-scale war between Russia and Turkey. The Russians have understood against this backdrop that they should try to withdraw from this war in some way.

“On their part, this withdrawal could be the result of negotiations with the Americans, which would in fact decide the country’s destiny. This was one of their key ambitions. The Americans have so far accepted this. It looks like the Russians and the Americans will seal the fate of the Syrian war by a joint effort. But, as we know, it is in fact impossible to make any deals with Russia. Let us see whether it will carry out this agreement.

“It is important that the crucial element of this agreement is creation of a no-fly zone, which makes impossible to conduct bombings. Accordingly, this will ease the pressure of refugees on Turkey and Europe.

“On the other hand, the political context of the ceasefire agreement remains unclear. We have heard an absolutely vague statement of Bashar al-Assad about what he called parliamentary elections in April. I cannot understand how, on what principles, and on what territory these elections can be held.

“We were on the brink of a major war. But we can say today that the opposition and the government have opted for a truce, and a sluggish peace process seems to have begun. But it is far more difficult to win peace than war. Indeed, elections are one of the universal mechanisms for achieving peace. But they can either help resolve the contradictions or, on the contrary, aggravate them.”

Roland FREUDENSTEIN, deputy director, Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, Brussels:

“Yes, that’s the way Mr. Putin wants to be seen. But we should not do him that favor, because Russia is using its intervention in Syria to establish itself as the principal foreign power in the region, to protect its cronies (Assad etc.), to use the same military methods as in Chechnya (civilian casualties are intended) and to make the migration crisis worse for Europe – while supporting anti-migration parties in the EU itself. Like a good chess move, this decision had several functions for Russia. Unsurprisingly, nearly all are bad for the West. So, this whole talk about Russia as being part of the solution is at odds with reality. More and more people in the West are seeing this, but not enough yet.”

Adrian KARATNYCKY, US Atlantic Council’s Senior Fellow:

“No one I know considers this a sign of Russia as a superpower. Syria is a strategic priority for Russia but is also a bargaining chip with Europe as Russia can manufacture hundreds of thousands of new refugees to destabilize politics in Germany and France. That, however, does not make Russia a superpower. It is a declining power whose economy may again decline this year by over four percent. It’s currency has been in freefall, it is dependent on cash from hydrocarbons and raw materials. And it is – like the USSR in the 1970s and 1980s – in danger of imperial overstretch. Still, it retains the capacity to do great harm. Not as a superpower, but as a global super-pariah.”

Ulrich SPECK, Senior Fellow of the Transatlantic Academy in Washington:

“I think, first of all, Russia wants to control Syria, have a dependent ally there, to demonstrate its power and to have leverage. Domination is the goal, Putin wants to be respected and feared. But that’s all speculation as we don’t really know what’s going on in Putin’s head.”

Steven PIFER, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution's Center on the United States and Europe, Washington:

"While a ceasefire would be an important step toward finding a solution to the conflict in Syria, given all that has happened there, expectations should be kept modest.  First of all, it is not the just Russia and the United States, but a lot of other actors, both inside and outside of Syria, that need to accept the ceasefire.  Second, for the ceasefire to take effect, it will be important that the Russian air force cease targeting the more moderate rebel groups and focus just on attacking the Islamic State and the Nusra Front, which would be a major change in Russian air operations in Syria.  We will have to see what happens on the ground.  The Kremlin certainly wants to change the way it is viewed in the West and be seen as part of the solution, not the problem.  Of course, the best way to do that will be for Russia to stop being the problem and start being part of the solution.  That applies in Ukraine as well as Syria".

Steven PIFER, senior fellow, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.:

“While a ceasefire would be an important step toward finding a solution to the conflict in Syria, given all that has happened there, expectations should be kept modest. First of all, it is not the just Russia and the United States, but a lot of other actors, both inside and outside of Syria, that need to accept the ceasefire. Second, for the ceasefire to take effect, it will be important that the Russian air force cease targeting the more moderate rebel groups and focus just on attacking the Islamic State and the Nusra Front, which would be a major change in Russian air operations in Syria. We will have to see what happens on the ground. The Kremlin certainly wants to change the way it is viewed in the West and be seen as part of the solution, not the problem. Of course, the best way to do that will be for Russia to stop being the problem and start being part of the solution. That applies in Ukraine as well as Syria.”