On John Kerry’s “optimistic” statement

The US may be able to consider lifting sanctions it imposed on Russia over its military aggression in Ukraine if the Kremlin complies with the Minsk Agreements. According to Bloomberg, US Secretary of State John Kerry made this statement during his stay in Davos. According to Kerry, the US government can begin to consider the lifting of sanctions in the coming months. “With effort on both sides, it is possible to find those Minsk Agreements implemented. If this happens, it would get to the place where sanctions can be appropriately – because of the implementation – be removed,” the agency quoted the secretary of state as saying. Interestingly, Kerry’s forecast, optimistic as it was, came against the backdrop of the warning voiced by deputy head of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine Alexander Hug, who said that should the militants keep firing on SMM patrols, the Minsk peace process would be terminated.

John HERBST, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, member of the Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C:

“Secretary Kerry’s remarks at Davos reiterated the US and EU position on sanctions: that they will be lifted when Russia fulfills all its Minsk commitments – including, especially, the withdrawal of all its troops and weapons and returning control of the border to Ukraine. Unfortunately, Mr. Kerry expressed this position in an upbeat way designed to make it appear more acceptable to Moscow. As we have sadly learned since the invasion of Crimea nearly two years ago, conciliatory gestures and language have not persuaded Moscow to do the right thing.

“Sanctions can be gone in a few months if Moscow in fact fulfills all its Minsk commitments. That is possible, but unlikely. Possible because we have seen over the past four months some indications that Moscow is getting tired of its war in the Donbas. These signs include:

♦ the reduction in ceasefire violations starting past September – although there are still dozens;

♦ the mysterious deaths of some local leaders in the DNR and LNR past fall;

♦ the naming of Boris Gryzlov as the new main Russian point man for Minsk;

♦ the now public talks between Victoria Nuland and Vladislav Surkov;

♦ and Surkov’s enthusiastic characterization of those talks.

“The key question, of course, is whether these signs mean that Moscow is willing to back off its aggression. My sense is that the Kremlin will try in the next few months to insist on Ukraine’s passing constitutional reform that gives the LNR and DNR an effective veto over Ukraine’s foreign policy – a complete non starter. Once this gambit fails, the Kremlin will have to decide whether its goals in the Donbas are worth the economic pain.

“The US and EU should maintain sanctions on in order to persuade the Kremlin to meet its Minsk commitments. The US should also provide Ukraine with defensive lethal weapons so that it can better defend itself against Russian violations of the ceasefire and as a deterrence against any Russian thoughts that a new offensive would get it a better deal in Ukraine’s east. Also, the UK should issue new targeted sanctions in connection with the Russian government’s role in the murder of Mr. Litvinenko.”