German constructiveness vs. Kremlin’s “threats”

There seems to be a coming “slack” in the close relationship between Germany and Russia due to the situation in Ukraine or, to be more exact, Moscow’s unwillingness to carry out the Minsk Accords. At any rate, the cooling can already be felt. Addressing the CDU party congress, German Chancellor Angela Merkel accused Russia of violating international law and emphasized that she would do her utmost to achieve a diplomatic settlement of the conflict in eastern Ukraine. “What has been happening for months in Ukraine calls into question Europe’s peace order. Russia continues to violate international law. Neighboring countries have suddenly ceased to be partners and become spheres of influence. And we will not overcome these problems unless we call a spade a spade,” Merkel said.

 In a matter of minutes, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reacted to the German chancellor’s tough statement. He said he was upset over the behavior of German leaders and warned Europe that it would be at a loss if Berlin stopped playing a constructive role in the relations between Moscow and the West. “We are expressing our concern about what our German counterparts are doing. German has been traditionally playing a very constructive role in the relations between the European Union and Russia, between the West and Russia on the whole. If Germany suddenly decided to switch to diktat, neither Europe nor Germany would benefit from this,” Lavrov said at a press conference after the talks with Belgian Foreign Minister Didier Reynders.

The Day requested some experts to appraise the current Russian-German relations and asked in what way this could affect the position of Ukraine in international politics.

“THIS IS A FIASCO OF THE KREMLIN’S POLICY IN EUROPE, WHERE RUSSIA HAS BEEN REINFORCING ITS POSITIONS FOR ALMOST A DECADE”

 Mykola KAPITONENKO, Executive Director, International Relations Research Center, Kyiv:

“Moscow has already lost its leverage on the attitudes of Europe, including that of Berlin. The former would like precisely Berlin to put forward a proposal on a new order in Europe, where Moscow would be assigned a greater role. But Merkel has made it clear in the past month that this will not happen. And this is a fiasco of the Kremlin’s policy in Europe, where Russia has been reinforcing its lobbyist positions for almost a decade. But this produced no results, so the only option is empty threats. Russia has no other leverage. All the Kremlin can do is resort to blackmail. But Europe has been bracing itself for this lately. And Russia is unlikely to resort to this, for it depends on the money it earns for its gas.”

Incidentally, Germany has seen a new letter from intellectuals, including the former chancellors Schmidt, Schroeder, and Kohl. They are calling for a new detente between the West and Russia. Will this have any effect on the policy of Merkel who is really irked with the Kremlin’s actions?

“This no longer works. Indeed, there are some in Europe, who understand Putin – their attitude to Russia is generally positive. They are predominantly social democrats. But today they are in the minority whose circle is more and more narrowing. I was in Germany recently and met the Bundestag members in charge of foreign policy matters. The German establishment’s attitude to Russia’s foreign policy is increasingly critical. Of course, there will always be people who take a more positive or more sensible attitude to Russia. They have always been in Germany, but they are in the minority today, irrespective of whether or not there are former chancellors or other top officials among them. Still, it is a minority position, and it is rather weak in Germany.”

And how should we regard Germany’s continuous emphasis that a military solution of the Donbas conflict is ruled out and the German foreign minister’s statement that Ukraine will not be a NATO member?

“Indeed, you have named two problems – settlement of the Donbas conflict and Ukraine’s NATO membership. In both cases, Germany is taking a consistent stand. Clearly, it favors a peaceful settlement because nobody supports or can benefit from the escalation of this conflict. As for the NATO membership, Steinmeier is taking a special attitude which may somewhat differ from that of the chancellor. But NATO membership is Ukraine’s long-term goal. Everybody agrees that we need to get prepared for this. For this reason, the German foreign minister will perhaps change his attitude when the question of Ukraine’s real accession to NATO comes onto the agenda. Both in Europe and in the US, the politicians who support, one way or another, Ukraine’s NATO membership are unanimous that we must carry out reforms for this. I think we should proceed from these positions only.”

ON PARALLELS BETWEEN UKRAINE AND POSTWAR GERMANY

As the German ambassador to this country, Christof Weil, said that Merkel is a true friend of Ukraine, what kind of support can we expect from Germany in the conflict with Russia?

 “Germany is of particular benefit for Ukraine. It can be a lobbyist of our interests in the European Union as well as a donor that can help us not only with money, but also with all kinds of programs and investments to promote reforms in various fields. This is in principle what we are expecting today from any Western country. Owing to the special role Germany is playing in the EU, it can be extremely interesting to us, as far as the EU’s overall attitude to Ukraine is concerned.”

And what about borrowing German experience? Is the current leadership perhaps paying too much attention to the experience of Singapore? For Germany has also proved that it can quickly restore its economy after any war, and it is now Europe’s most powerful state.

 “There are controversial pages in the history of Germany. Its experience of reconstruction after various wars is also variegated. It is always useful to study any experience, but this should be done always and in the long term, not only under force-majeure circumstances. We will fail to copy any – Singaporean or German – experience. But, as a rule, whenever reforms are badly needed, it is better not to reinvent the wheel but to use the results other countries achieved in a situation similar to that of Ukraine. And such parallels can be drawn between Ukraine and Singapore, between the Ukraine of today and Germany after World War Two.”

“RUSSIA IS LOSING ITS GRIP, AND IT HAS FEWER AND FEWER ARGUMENTS TO FURTHER ADVANCE ITS INTERESTS”

Addressing the CDU congress, where she was reelected as party leader, Merkel said that one must be patient about the conflict in Ukraine and emphasized that new sanctions against Russia were possible. Will this affect Putin’s policy towards Ukraine, particularly as far as his fulfillment of the Minsk Accords is concerned?

 “Summing up the past month’s events, we must say that Germany has taken a more favorable attitude to us, an attitude that more serves our interests and, at the same time, is pragmatic – they are realistically sizing up the situation and see that it will take time to settle the conflict even after the hostilities end and reconstruction begins. On the whole, the conflict-related rhetoric is entering a more pragmatic phase. Everybody considers Russia as a country that can destabilize and shake Ukraine. And, gradually, everybody has got accustomed to this. And the world community, Europe, and Ukraine have acquired certain immunity. For this reason, Russia will find it more and more difficult to derive benefit from its aggressive policy.”

How can we make it return to the status quo?

 “We are engaged in a hybrid war. Therefore, even the withdrawal of troops or the formal end of military exercises will hardly mean the end of the conflict or of Russia’s participation in it. There must be a compromise option based on our most vital interests. It may be the question of forcing Russia to accept this position. I think Russia’s position is weakening, and it has fewer and fewer arguments to further advance its interests. At first, there were many arguments, but now it is a direct use of military force, which is very seldom effective.”