Aliona HETMANCHUK: “Yanukovych may go down in the history of Ukraine as a politician who practically started integration into Europe”
Aliona Hetmanсhuk, director of the Institute of World Politics, has been studying foreign policy problems for 14 years. Since November 2009, she has been at the head of an independent nongovernmental organization whose goal is to inform and educate the general public on the events and tendencies in international relations and Ukraine’s foreign policy. A true Euro-Atlanticist, she consistently, convincingly, and, at the same time, elegantly stands her ground. In a more than two hour-long interview, Hetmanchuk told Den journalists and students of the 9th Summer School of Journalism about street Euro universities and the way she is trying to persuade European politicians and diplomats that it is necessary to sign the Association Agreement, as well as shared with the students the recipes of citizen diplomacy.
“THIS VISIT LOOKED LIKE AN ACT OF DESPERATION ON THE PART OF THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENT”
Tetiana MATSKEVYCH, Lviv National Ivan Franko University: Putin’s visit to Ukraine and his behavior during the celebration of the 1,025th anniversary of the Baptism of Rus’ confirmed again that Russia’s foreign policy in Ukraine had ended in a fiasco. Which of the two – Ukraine or Russia – have benefited from the celebrations?
Aliona HETMANCHUK: “For me, this visit looked liked an act of desperation on the part of the Russian president and Russia. They can see that the dynamics and the current foreign policy trend in Ukraine do not come up to their expectations. It is obvious that, to break this trend, one must offer more compelling arguments than before. The recent argument was that the Customs Union and then the Eurasian Union will provide Ukraine with some fantastic economic benefits. The stakes were rising all the time, and we were promised almost a paradise in case we join the Customs Union. But, oddly enough, this argument failed to work. Then they seemed to stake on a more delicate matter – Orthodox values. As even European Union enthusiasts in Ukraine itself were always making it clear that what really matters for us is European values, rather than a piece of sausage, the Russians decided to play on this field and speak in the language of values, not of economics, but these values are Orthodox and Slavic. Apparently, this visit of the Russians to celebrate the Rus’ Baptism anniversary was symbolic, for its aim was to emphasize that what unites us are, above all, values, and these values are not European.
“As for Russia’s stakes on certain politicians, I can only say that it is very good to be friends with Russia when you are not in power and do not make strategic long-term decisions. For what our politicians lack is sense of responsibility. For me, post-Sovietness – the phenomenon the Institute of World Politics studies today – is, above all, absence of such two things as openness and responsibility. Typical post-Soviet politicians and ordinary people are closed and irresponsible. In my view, lack of these two things is a sign of typical post-Sovietness which, unfortunately, makes up a critical mass among our politicians, elites, and populace.”
Solomia LUKOVETSKA, Kyiv National Taras Shevchenko University: Speaking with the EU ambassador to Ukraine, Jan Tombinski, we asked him if the Association Agreement would be of benefit to both sides. Mr. Tombinski answered that the agreement was important for Ukraine, not for Europe. But political scientist Dmytro Vydrin said in a comment that Europe would be the main beneficiary of the Association Agreement with Ukraine. Would you comment?
A.H.: “The myth that the agreement is more beneficial to Europe that to Ukraine has been around for more than one year. Incidentally, the Europeans resent it quite a lot. There are many things that are really of benefit to the European Union as far as rapprochement with Ukraine is concerned – from geopolitical and security considerations (it is good to have a neighbor that does not upset your comfort) to some economic considerations.
“But, today, we just have no right to act on the premise of what is of benefit to the European Union. Today we should proceed from the interests of our own state. Many Ukrainians may not be aware of how beneficial the Association Agreement is for Ukraine and how it may change the situation in this country if it is even partially implemented.
“I know that many Ukrainians are used to living by the principle ‘if only things were not worse” and oppose even the changes that will have a positive effect on their lives. If an individual has no motivation for this kind of changes, does not want to earn more, to be free to travel and to give their children a better education because this may upset the customary way of life, this will, in my view, have the most terrible consequences for the development of this individual and the state. Moreover, when we speak about changes as a result of European integration, we do not mean some amorphous reforms which we have been ‘fed’ with from year to year, we mean comfortable life in this country for each of us and our families an even the health of each of us. For example, the EU free trade area is an opportunity to buy quality products, owing to competition and introduction of certain standards, such as milk which is really milk rather than what is usually sold in our country.
“For this reason, whenever we, Institute of World Policy associates, travel across the Ukrainian regions and hold ‘street Euro university’ lessons, we try to show by means of easy-to-grasp drawings and comments all the Ukraine-EU differences in various fields – from politics to the environment, the air we breathe, and the water we drink because EU water quality requirements are 28 times higher than in our country, which means health for us and our relatives. And that life expectancy in Ukraine is 10 years shorter than in the EU is also an eloquent fact that reveals the quality of the environment and of medical care in this country.”
“MODERNIZATON AND DEMOCRATIZATION OF RUSSIA MUCH MORE DEPENDS ON UKRAINE THAN ON GERMANY, THE EU, OR THE US”
Mykola SIRUK: And what about the chances of signing? On the one hand, Fuele gave a signal, saying to Gazeta Wyborcza yesterday: ‘Ukraine is showing a positive tendency as far as signing the Association Agreement is concerned’.
A.H.: “In my personal view, the chances of signing are 50 to 50. Sometimes they vary. And I am pleased to hear from some European ambassadors and diplomats about even 70 percent ‘for and 30 percent ‘against.’ Their optimism may be explained, to a large extent, by their belief that the Tymoshenko problem will be solved.
“As for Mr. Fuele, with all due respect for him, he is not an indicator of actual sentiments in the entire European Union. Unfortunately, the current situation is that Brussels only holds the copy of the keys to signing the agreement, while the original is in Berlin. So I do not think we will hear about Germany’s final position before the elections in that country or even before the formation of a coalition. But I hope very much that Germany will stake on a bird in the hand than on two birds in the bush in its foreign policy. In other words, it will not chase two birds, which is Russia, in an attempt to modernize and make it a reliable and predictable ally of the West, but will choose one bird in the hand, which is Ukraine. Maybe, it will not be as prestigious for a giant like Germany to say that it helped modernize Ukraine as it would be in the case of Russia, but I think it is an instance when Germany must choose a bird in the hand so that two birds in the bush come by themselves. I am absolutely convinced that modernization and democratization of Russia much more depends on Ukraine than on Germany, the EU, or the US. It is the instance when, helping Ukraine to change, Germany will also help Russia – just in a more indirect way.”
M.S.: Incidentally, I have found that the German Social Democrat Guenter Verheugen, former EU Commissioner for Enlargement, said that Germany was applying double standards to Ukraine. In other words, if the Social Democrats come to power in Germany, will there be more chances of them taking this view of things?
A.H.: “You know, when you work for a long time and analyze Ukraine’s foreign policy, you are greatly surprised to come across statements of such politicians as Mr. Verheugen who, as far as I remember, once said that to speak of Ukraine’s EU membership is the same as to speak of Mexico joining the US.
“I will be very glad if more and more European politicians, who used to say one thing, have really changed their views today and are convinced that the united Europe is in fact not fully united without Ukraine and that it is not part of an election ploy.
“In spite of all the emotions that Chancellor Angela Merkel may be arousing in Ukraine’s Europe-minded circles, I must say she is by far the most likely German politician of today to be able to sign the Association Agreement. It seems to me that, given her resoluteness, political will, and disappointment over ‘partnership for modernization’ with Russia and even such a problem as Transnistria conflict settlement, Merkel is able to make a firm independent decision, rather than a decision formed under the pressure of an external player.”
“THE EU AGREES ON MANY COMPROMISES AND CONCESSIONS TO HAVE THIS AGREEMENT SIGNED”
M.S.: As for the position of Russia, an external player, can it influence or hinder the signing of the Association Agreement?
A H.: “I have always believed that Vladmir Putin has a lot of possibilities, resources, and an overwhelming desire to do his utmost to thwart the signing of this agreement. But I think Vilnius 2013 will differ from Bucharest 2008 in that the EU and Germany are much more interested in signing the Association Agreement with Ukraine than they were in 2008 in giving Ukraine the NATO Membership Action Plan. For Ukraine’s NATO membership was not even on the agenda in German foreign policy – the Germans just did not see the point in Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration. There was a total consensus between the German elites, societies, and the expert community that Ukraine must not be given the NATO Membership Action Plan. Even in France, an ostensibly more pro-Russian-minded country, some well-known philosophers with Andre Glucksmann at the head filed a petition demanding that NATO grant Ukraine this action plan. A lively debate is being held today in Germany, which weighs all the pros and cons about signing the agreement. And I still hope that the opinion of those who favor the signing will outweigh that of their opponents. Besides, what also helps is the fact that relations between Russia and Germany are not the same as they were on the eve of the Bucharest summit.”
M.S.: So who can hinder this today?
A.H.: “Only we ourselves cam hinder the signing of this agreement because, in my view, the EU agrees today on many compromises and concessions to have this agreement signed. Maybe, these concessions are not very much in sight. The EU cannot cancel its demands altogether because this would be a loss of face for it and we must be aware of this. In my opinion, loss of reputation is the only loss that the EU may suffer if it signs the Association Agreement without Ukraine meeting all the recommendations. The EU will lose nothing more – in reality, it will finally conclude what is more dangerous for it: a loss of reputation in the eastern direction of its foreign policy or the loss of Ukraine.”
Yulia LUCHYK: Paradoxically, Yanukovych and his team have in fact come most closely in all the years of independence to signing the Association Agreement. Therefore, Yanukovych is by far the greatest Euro integrator of Ukraine, although there was Yushchenko before him, who also positioned himself as pro-European politician… What do you think about this point of view, and will Yanukovych be able to continue pursuing this course? Who does he rely upon in this and who are his experts?
A.H.: “I think, frankly speaking, that he relies, above all, on his intuition. In all probability, he listens to everybody, accepts the opinion of some, but makes a final decision on the basis of his intuition. It is my subjective observation
“He can really go down in the history of Ukraine as a politician who started a practical, not a declarative, European integration. I think one should put this argument – that he will go down in history – across to him as much as possible so that he supports more sincerely the signing of the Association Agreement. I guess every politician is ambitious enough to accept this argument.
“Yet it is not only his merit but also, to a large extent, the merit of his predecessors who began these negotiations and did their best to bring the Association Agreement closer. The EU did not even understand until recently that Ukraine deserves this agreement that calls for political association and economic integration. We should also remember that, before the Orange Revolution, Ukraine was for many Europeans nothing more than ‘little Russia.’ Unfortunately, it still remains so for many. Why is it so difficult for us to sign the Association Agreement? Because it can show us quite differently to the world – not as ‘little Russia’ but as a prospective part of Europe.
“WOMEN ARE THE BEST SPECIALISTS TO PURSUE ‘SOFT POWER’ POLICIES”
Maria PROKOPENKO, Donetsk National University: The Institute of World Politics supports the project Global Virtual Forum of Female Leaders, which particularly deals with the problems of gender inequality. Women account for a mere 10 percent of Ukrainian MPs, a record high in all the years of independence. Why do we need more women in politics and how can this be achieved?
A.H.: “If we want to have a modern European country, we must ensure equal rights – also for women. In our country, women account for 60 percent of voters and only 10 percent of parliament members. This means the interests of female voters are not adequately represented, which runs counter to the European democratic practice. I will not claim categorically that only men are to blame for underrepresentation of women in the highest echelons of power – a lot of blame also lies with women themselves who often reach a certain level and then abruptly cut short the still fledgling career to care for the family and children.
“Besides, if we are going to be a respected European country, we must understand that ‘soft power’ is in greater demand in today’s politics than ‘hard power.’ Even men, who wield power in various countries, are gradually changing their behavior for a more refined style of governance. Women are the best specialists to pursue ‘soft power’ policies, for they know how to communicate without pressure and tough rhetoric and thus achieve tangible results.
“And what worries me the most in the current process of our Europeanization is that, unfortunately, as some surveys show, women give less support to European integration and Ukraine’s movement to the EU than men do. It is also mostly women who favor the ‘strong hand,’ authoritarian rule, and restriction of the freedom of speech. And, at the same time, polls suggest that post-Soviet women feel much worse, physically and mentally, than women in other countries.
“As journalists, experts, an public figures, we should persistently work with Ukrainian women and explain to them the advantages of the freedom of speech and democratic rule, European integration, particularly the Ukraine-EU free trade area. We should explain to them the pluses of these changes which they are afraid of due to lack of information and conservative views. We must put this information across through the channels to which they have access – not through roundtables for experts and political talk shows. The above-mentioned ‘street universities’ attract very many women who discover the European Union for themselves. We are trying to explain to them that European integration means positive changes for the health, comfort, and wellbeing of them and their families.”
“UKRAINE CAN ONLY BECOME A REGIONAL LEADER IF IT IS DEMOCRATIC AND EUROPEAN”
Roman HRYVINSKY, Kyiv Mohyla Academy graduate: Our state is today mostly an object in international politics. Will we ever be able to change this situation? Could Ukraine play the role of a regional leader in some fields? Under what conditions is this possible?
A.H.: “I wholeheartedly support the idea of Ukraine’s regional leadership. Today Ukraine has another opportunity to position itself as regional leader if it signs the Association Agreement in Vilnius. I happened to hear more than once European politicians and diplomats say informally: ‘If we sign this agreement with Ukraine, this will greatly facilitate the process with other Eastern Partnership countries. If we fail with Ukraine, we may as well fail with all the others.’
“Unfortunately, the situation is that the countries of our region are more inclined to borrow negative, rather than positive, practices and behavior patterns of each other. But I think the Association Agreement will be just the occasion to introduce a tradition to borrow something really positive from each other.
“What Ukraine lacks for successful regional leadership is success stories. For example, the story of Georgia’s success in fighting corruption and reforming the law-enforcement system creates a much stronger impression than all the Ukrainian reforms in this field. Moldova’s success story in the electronic government is more eloquent than that of Ukraine. There are many examples like this. But even these countries (Georgia, Moldova, et al) are aware that Ukraine is, geopolitically, of a different magnitude and only our country can become a true icebreaker. For them, the signed agreement between Ukraine and the EU will also be their admission ticket to a different system of values and behavioral patterns.
“To develop our regional leadership, we should also attract more actively the potential of our ‘soft power’ in the region. For, in reality, everything depends not only on the country’s size but also on its image and attractiveness. I would like to emphasize that the ‘radiation’ that emanates from Ukraine does not, unfortunately, correspond to our potential. So we must work on the positioning of Ukraine in the region.
“I am convinced that Ukraine can only become a regional leader if it is democratic and European. A Ukraine like this will be really attractive and interesting to other countries in the region, which are also inclined to believe that the European option is more desirable for them than the Eurasian one. A European democratic Ukraine can be a regional leader, while the Ukraine that is a ‘little Russia’ and only copies Russia or Belarus will never be able to be a regional leader – it will only be able to be a rough copy of Russia, a ‘little Russia.’”
