A double-edged pipe

A lot of Ukrainians have an impression that the Ukrainian authorities are literally and figuratively “entrenching” themselves inside our country and abroad. How can they pull through the “trenches” and the trap Yanukovych has fallen into because of Tymoshenko’s case, and save face and the policy of the European integration; what should Ukraine expect after the recent elections in Russia and Putin’s third term? The experts of Den tried to answer these questions during the roundtable called “What’s next?” held the other day in Den’s office.

“UKRAINE IS NOT ‘ENTRENCHING’ ITSELF, IT IS FALLING”

Valerii CHALY, deputy director general of the Razumkov Center, former deputy foreign minister of Ukraine: “Really, unfortunately after 20 years of independence Ukraine is still uncertain about its security model and integration policy. It is still doing the splits between the West and the East though its national interests have been defined and the legislation clearly provides for our integration purpose of being a member of the EU.

“As for me, the definitions given to the current situation, from a bridge between the East and the West to the buffer zone, are quite a bad signal for Ukraine. Ukraine has to decide. It cannot stay between the two integration economic unions: the EU and the Customs Union of the Eurasian Union and the two security systems: NATO and the Eurasian system whose part is CSTO headed by Russia.

“Ukraine will never get more powerful and will not be able to protect its sovereignty if it does not choose the way of the European integration and does not join the systems providing the economic security in Europe.”

Oleksandr CHALY, former first deputy foreign minister of Ukraine, former deputy head of the President’s Secretariat: “I also think that there is no alternative to the European integration. However, for me the European integration is the transformation of the Ukrainian society based on the European principles and values and not the desire to become the EU member. The membership is just one of the forms of the European integration.

“Why couldn’t the Ukrainian authorities come to a definite geopolitical position of Ukraine over 20 years? First of all, it is impossible from the geopolitical point. Ukraine is not a geopolitical superpower and in the global world only the superpowers are able to decide on their own. Secondly, the geopolitical position of Ukraine is between two global centers of force, the EU and Russia, and it influences the balance of two other strategic attempts of China and the US.

“That is why Ukraine is unable to define its geopolitical place in the world without mutual understanding as for Ukraine’s geopolitical position between the two abovementioned centers. It is not the Ukrainian authorities’ fault but the geopolitical laws.

“That is why in the nearest 15-20 years (this is my main forecast) Ukraine will not be able to become a member of NATO or CSTO or any other Russian security block. We will not enter the EU or the Eurasian Union either.

“Strategically, it will not prevent us from pursuing the European integration in terms of our civilization choice. It means that we will build Europe in Ukraine and transform the society according to the European standards.

“Ukraine has to adequately demonstrate what it is and what it can pretend for fitting into the existing geopolitical and geoeconomic situation in the world. I do not mind joining NATO...”

V.Ch.: “Record it, please” (smiling).

O.Ch.: “Here you are. I would also like to become tomorrow the EU and NATO member. However, it is impossible from the geopolitical point. The problem is not that much in Ukraine but in NATO and the EU and their relations with Russia and China. They do not give us membership prospects and will not do it since our membership will create more problems than advantages for their security and welfare.”

Hryhorii PEREPELYTSIA, doctor of political science, professor at the Kyiv Shevchenko National University: “Ukraine is not entrenching itself, it is falling to the point called the ‘grey area.’ What is the non-aligned status of Ukraine? It is the acknowledgement of our helplessness and uncertainty in the strategic policy and the foreign strategic vectors. It is hidden deeply in the society. Really, with our non-aligned status we fixed ourselves in the buffer ‘grey zone.’

“Can this zone last for a long time in the multipolar world? Now Ukraine reminds of postwar Finland. Back then there was a Russian military base there. We have the Russian naval base in Sevastopol. Finland was given a neutral status for its socialist orientation. None of the countries was given the neutrality not to mention the non-aligned status. It is an absolutely odious phenomenon existing in very few countries.”

How does it influence the current situation in Ukraine and what conclusion can be drawn?

H.P.: “Nobody will leave Ukraine in its non-aligned status since the influence areas are being strictly defined now. We have the non-aligned status since we are not interested in joining NATO but tomorrow we will be invited into the CSTO. Thus our non-aligned status has ‘teased’ Russia even more and made its mouth water. The Eurasian Union is impending and it is not something like the EU. Can Ukraine stay in the buffer zone for a long time after Putin has declared the creation of the Eurasian Union which means ‘restoring’ Russia? The buffer zone will quickly turn into the Russian zone: the one of the Russian ruble and Russian laws. In this situation Ukraine will not be able to stay an independent and sovereign state for a long time.”

Mykhailo HONCHAR, director for the energy programs at the Kyiv center “NOMOS”: “The influence starts with paying in rubles. It looks like nothing special: just a technical procedure. Does it matter if we pay in tugriks, dollars or rubles? Anyway, it is a foreign currency. It is the evidence of the fact that being in the ‘grey’ or buffer zone will finally end up with becoming a part of something, of some construction since the buffer cannot exist on its own. It is always an element of some construction. Its role is positive on the condition that the buffer is strong. Is Ukraine strong? This is a problem”.

Yurii KOROLCHUK, member of the Supervisory Board at the Institute for Energy Studies: “Now we can see in the energy what we will see in the politics in 10-15 years. Now other geopolitical methods are used. Formerly, people conducted wars but today they use the economics, the energy whose motive powers are oil and gas. It looks like we are in the ‘grey zone’ and deciding where we should move but in the energy we have already fallen. It is clear since we start paying for gas with our land. Let’s recall the Kharkiv agreement. Secondly, we started paying for gas with rubles. Thirdly, unfortunately, the gas pipelines that have become small change in these talks were designed in the Soviet Union.

“The new era has started and we can see it in the energy today.”

O.Ch.: “I agree with many Hryhorii’s ideas, however, I would draw the opposite conclusions from them. Firstly, I agree that the non-aligned status means the policy of uncertainty. What conclusion does he draw from this? Ukraine has to join NATO. However, since I am absolutely sure that Ukraine cannot enter into the Alliance because it is the same that collecting apples on the Mars I can draw another conclusion: our non-aligned status has to be transformed into the internationally recognized neutrality. I agree that Ukraine is in a certain ‘grey zone’ today. However, if we turn our non-aligned status into the internationally recognized neutral status Ukraine will stop being a ‘grey zone.’

“As a member of the EASI, I have to draw your attention to the process of creation of a new community for the Euro-Atlantic security in which the US, the EU, and Russia have to become the partners enjoying equal rights.

“Ukraine has to become a positive element of the interdependency of the EU, Russia, China, and the US taking into account the new role of Turkey, India, Brazil, South Africa, and Germany in the global changes of the modern world.”

H.P.: “What Oleksandr says is well-known and provided by Medvedev in the project of the European Security Treaty.

“Russia is trying to strengthen its influence area with its initiatives and is creating another Warsaw Treaty that has to be officially recognized in the post-Soviet space. NATO cannot interfere into the situation in the post-Soviet space without agreeing it with Russia. This project ‘sincerely’ imposed by Russia is very insidious.

“The question of the neutrality is slyness. Is the neutrality recognized?! You can declare your neutrality as much as you wish but nobody will recognize it. How can it be recognized if we prolonged the foreign military presence till 2042 with the Kharkiv agreement.

“How can our neutrality be discussed after that? Forget about it. Moreover, if you want to joint the EU, the article No. 42 of the Lisbon Treaty clearly provides for the collective defense. There are no neutral countries there.”

V.Ch.: “The idea to create a calm wealthy Euro-Atlantic zone from Vancouver to Vladivostok is nice but unreal. There are at once several questions about this ideal model. A simple question to any Ukrainian: would you like to be under policemen’s batons in Moscow after the elections in Russia? Would you like to prosecute somebody in Moscow or will you do it in Stockholm or Strasbourg?

“To make a decision about our future it is not enough to look at our position on the world map but think about people’s choice. Why have our neighbors who had nearly the same possibilities 20 years ago already made their choice? Ask any Pole, Czech or Hungarian and every of them will tell you that regardless of all the problems joining the EU and NATO was the right choice. Why don’t the Ukrainians have such possibilities?”

O.Ch.: “Now you agree to hold a referendum. Let’s ask the people: what dot they want? Are we ready to ask the people? Did any of your abovementioned polls have the third option about the neutrality (only two options are always mentioned: NATO or CSTO, Russia or the EU)?!

“And what is more important: are you ready to accept and support the decision the people will make?”

V.Ch.: “We have the specific information concerning people’s choice. If the referendum was held today, most of those who would come would support… ”

O.Ch.: “Joining NATO?”

V.Ch.: “Joining the EU. The question of joining NATO is not on the agenda now. However, let’s ask another question at the referendum. For example, do the people support the fiscal code and the attitude to the small business? A lot of questions can be asked but for some reason nobody asks strategic questions to the people.”

How can Ukraine pull through a trap Yanukovych has fallen into with Tymoshenko’s case, save face and the policy of the European integration?

H.P.: “It is impossible to save face. It is true that Yanukovych is trapped. I think it is the result of his team’s illusions since they thought that Europe needs Ukraine more than Ukraine needs Europe and will swallow it and take it as it is.”

But how should they pull through? The success of the Ukraine-EU summit due on December 19 depends on it.

H.P.: “We should lose our status of a Russian colony. Only in this case we can speak about something else. When the new national elite thinking about the national interests and not about its own enrichment comes we will be able to speak about something else. I think we have exhausted the resource of movement to Europe. This movement will finish with this agreement even if it is initialed.”

O.Ch.: “Tymoshenko’s case concerned, it would be good if the Ukrainian authorities adopt the decisions to change the corresponding articles of the Criminal Code in order to make it possible to cancel the criminal liability in her case. On the other hand, the authorities could change the restraint for Tymoshenko by December 13. In my opinion, it would resolve a lot of questions before the summit. How-ever, even if these two absolutely na-tural steps are not taken the declarations made during the session of the European Parliament demonstrate that the EU has not definitely decided if the summit will take place or not. We have the clear signal at the highest level that the agreement will not be ratified if Tymoshenko’s case is not finished according to the European standards.

“However, the initialing the agreement does not depend that much on it.”

V.Ch.: “Everybody is tired of guessing where the president will go and whether the agreement will be initialed or not. There is an impression that the whole society and all the politicians are constantly commenting our dashing aside. It should not happen so in the country building the predictable foreign policy… There are the recommendations of the European Parliament providing that Tymoshenko and Lutsenko should be released and allowed participating in the future parliamentary elections. That is why Yanukovych will not resolve anything with one decision. Unfortunately, the situation is aggravating and snowballing new problems.

“Why is it happening so? Because neither the Parliament, nor the active part of the public society can influence the foreign policy. The Parliament should resume its controlling function.

“Regardless of all this, I think that the summit will be held, however, instead of discussing the new level of the political association and economic integration the EU will discuss the problems in Ukraine. I would like we move faster.

“The answer to this question is in Ukraine. Its name is known: Viktor Yanukovych.”

H.P.: “Tymoshenko has nothing to do with it. The European community sees that we are getting back to the authoritarianism that is why we are given such conditions. We have seen an example of Slovakia when Meciar came and started building the authoritarian system and the country found itself dependent on the Russian Gazprom. What did Europe and NATO do? They suspended Slovakia until Meciar resigned and the new political forces came to power. This is the way out.”

M.H.: “It is well known that there is only way out of a deadlock: going back the quicker the better for the president as well. Everybody understands that he is the key-figure since he has grabbed all the powers.

“The later he realizes it the more he ‘evolves’ from the president to the owner of Mizhhiria. He will end up as Yushchenko did who was the president of Bankova Street but not of Ukraine. That is why everything is in his hands now. It is a technical matter how to finish the procedure. However, it is clear that there is no reason for optimism today. They say that he is very decisive, if so, we have a chance to get the evidence of this decisiveness or of its show.”

What do the elections held in Russia last weekend mean for Ukraine? What does Putin’s third term who does not hide his intentions to resume the USSR in the form of the Eurasian Union mean? Will the Ukrainian authorities cope with this challenge?

H.P.: “The current authorities will not cope with this challenge. It is evident since they are colonizers taking the country not as a state but as their own colony with certain resources.”

V.Ch.: “The elections in Russia have demonstrated that the faith in the government and in Vladimir Putin has fallen dramatically. Certainly, until the presidential elections he and his supporters will try to find some new messages for their society that would make the situation a bit more positive. Probably, this message will be ‘collecting the lands.’ I cannot see that our executive authorities, de-facto headed by the president who decides on the foreign policy are able to resist it.

“As a result, in all probability, Ukraine will acquire the status of a member of the Eurasian Union. It will be the first step to involve Ukraine into the Customs Union. In this case the threat will be crossing the point of no return. We can see it on the example of the Black Sea Fleet. The decision to prolong its stay violated the Ukrainian legislation. The government took the responsibility for this. However, the most complicated in this situation is that the new government will not be able to change this situation.

“That is why it is very important not to make the decisions that will determine the future of Ukraine for 20-30 years the way they are made now. They can do it for two-three years. However, everything that will last longer than their term has to be agreed with the people: probably, through the referendum or voting the development strategy in the parliament... Nobody has given the authorities the right to take that high responsibility.”

O.Ch.: “I am positive about this si-tuation…”

V.Ch.: “Of course, you went to Moscow, didn’t you?”

O.Ch.: “Putin’s ideology is not brand new to me. Everything that is declared now was declared at the beginning of 2001. It is interesting that the Russians have considered a lot of critical ideas voiced by the Ukrainians in 2001-03. We said that they should not have created the Eurasian Union at once, but the free-trade zone, Customs Union, etc…”

So, are the Ukrainians the main ideologists of the Eurasian Union?

O.Ch.: “No, they are not. Moreover, I am sure that after the presidential elections in Russia all this ideology will be corrected considering the situation in Russia, the Ukrainian position in this question, and the general lay of the land in the Euro-Atlantic region. Proceeding from this, I am absolutely sure that Ukraine will not be a member of the Eurasian Union. There is no any political, constitutional or geopolitical ground for this.”