Ukraine and Poland have particularized their priorities

With festivities on the occasion of the Year of Poland in Ukraine almost two months away, the two states are already showing some tendencies that are likely to have a certain impact on a far longer-term cooperation between them. The visit of Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Kostiantyn Hryshchenko to Warsaw and Gdansk on February 4-5 highlighted the key points of Ukrainian-Polish relations. He arrived in Warsaw on the day the Ukrainian government decided to use the Odesa-Brody oil pipeline for pumping in the European direction.

OIL

Poland seemed to be suddenly pleased with the decision of the Ukrainian Cabinet — not because it did not want this. Still, many Polish analysts have apparently been inclined to criticize official Kyiv for being indecisive over Euro-Atlantic orientation. The Polish newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza commented on the Ukrainian decision in a front-page article on the oil issue: “The oil will go West. A bold decision. The Kyiv government decided Caspian oil would flow to Europe through the Odesa-Brody pipeline. This means we will be deriving profits from transit and have our dependence on Russia in oil supplies reduced.”

As recently as one or two years ago, the Poles, whenever invited for oil transit cooperation, would answer with a timeworn phrase: this being a purely commercial project, please show us the required calculations, and only then will we be able to talk of real cooperation... Warsaw seemed to be skeptical about any likely profits out of this pipeline. It was not until Polish strategists clearly understood that participation in the Odesa-Brody project (extending the pipeline as far as Plock) could bring Poland at least a threefold profit that they began to show a stronger interest. Firstly, there will be oil transit earnings. Secondly, Poland will thus increase its own status in the European Union, which it will join in May. The Poles are getting a new chance to demonstrate how they are an important component of the EU structure, for Brussels has repeatedly and publicly evinced interest in the project over the past year. Thirdly, the Poles are aware that implementation of the Eurasian Oil Transit Corridor project will help reduce their dependence on Russian energy resources. The Polish press states that the country now depends 95% on Russian supplies.

Supposedly, Poland and the West as a whole showed more interest after the Russian oil business also announced that it was interested in the Odesa-Brody pipeline. “The debate over reverse pumping has played a positive role in a way,” Foreign Minister Hryshchenko told The Day. The minister also noted that “by choosing the originally designed European direction [of the pipeline], Ukraine showed that its overall strategic vector remains unchanged.” He said the question of the Ukrainian government’s latest decision had been raised at practically all meetings with the Polish leadership. It is difficult to say what how visit would have turned out if Kyiv had opted for reverse pumping. Incidentally, the Poles pointed out in private that Mr. Hryshchenko had brought two more positive pieces of news to Warsaw: Verkhovna Rada had resolved to alter draft constitutional amendments as recommended by the Venetian Commission, while President Leonid Kuchma announced that he was not running for a third term.

The Polish side does not hide its satisfaction. “The Ukrainian government has made a very important decision. It also tries to establish practical contacts with entrepreneurs involved in the implementation of this project,” said W ` l odzimierz Cimoszewicz, Poland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs. He also added that “it is time to get down to more practical actions, and it is also a good occasion to resume a dialog with the European Union about its more concrete participation in this project. The Polish mass media report that Ukraine and Poland are going to set up a joint venture approximately in mid-March to seek investment to extend the pipeline from Brody to P ` l ock. The Poles are so enthusiastic over the future oil cooperation that they are beginning to nurture seemingly impracticable plans about the Eurasian Oil Transit Corridor. Andrzej Radzikowski, deputy manager of Gdansk’s oil port, told The Day that Caspian oil might ultimately be supplied to the United States of America. “Of course, this kind of option will at first require considerable investment, but then all the expenses will pay their way,” he thinks. The deputy manager also said this oil port had been cooperating for four years with Russia’s YUKOS, which supplies some critical raw materials to the US.

There seems to be not only geographic but also political implications in the European direction of the Odesa-Brody pipeline. Ukrainian diplomats believe that the latest government decision could directly impact on the course of this country’s integration into the European and Euro-Atlantic structures. Involvement in the European energy-supply system will make Ukraine, if not an integral then at least an important part of its relationship with the EU. Official Kyiv also hopes that close cooperation with Poland will serve to promote integration into Europe. “It is important for us that Ukraine remain a decisive element in Poland’s eastern policy,” Minister Hryshchenko believes. “Poland is showing today that it can stand its ground in the EU. Besides, it is our closest neighbor. It would be to our disadvantage not to work with that country and not to develop the available positive factors in our relations,” he emphasized.

IRAQ

Kyiv and Warsaw have already proven their ability to cooperate effectively by participating in the Iraq stabilization force. Ukraine and Poland apparently would like to go further. Both sides have made statements that they are interested in joint participation in the reconstruction of Iraq. Mr. Hryshchenko said in particular, “The situation in Iraq will improve only when the existing security measures are complemented by the implementation of concrete projects by Polish and Ukrainian companies, which would show the Iraqis that their life is improving.” In his turn, Minister Cimoszewicz, when asked if Ukrainian-Polish cooperation in Iraq was discussed during the recent meeting of Polish and US presidents, said, “President Kwasniewski did his best during those negotiations, as he has always done, to support Ukraine so that it feels comfortable in the company of European states as well as in the context of Euro- Atlantic cooperation.”

Naturally, Ukraine and Poland are both rivals and partners in search of Iraqi contracts. The more so that Warsaw cannot yet boast of any fundamental progress in finding its place in Iraq’s reconstruction. Quite recently, the Polish firm Bumar lost out to the US consortium NOUR on a major contract to equip 27 battalions of the future Iraqi army. What might be the advantage of the Ukrainian-Polish tandem? If, for example, Polish businessmen win a bid to restore a certain Iraqi facility, which requires specialists in a specific area, they could in this case turn to their Ukrainian colleagues for help. The same applies to the Ukrainian seekers of Iraqi contracts. Clearly, agreements of this kind are not binding on either side, and they will be fulfilled according to the principle of mutual interest. As Minister Hryshchenko told The Day, the Poles quite positively reacted to the possibility of such cooperation.

NATO

The Kyiv-Warsaw cooperation is also important concerning Ukraine’s intention to join NATO. Although Poland’s membership hardly plays the crucial role in the alliance’s decision- making process, the neighboring country’s leadership could, on the one hand, help their Ukrainian counterparts set the right targets in their Euro-Atlantic aspirations and, on the other, support, if necessary, raising of the level of Ukraine’s relations with and then membership in NATO. Polish Minister Cimoszewicz spoke in favor of more active cooperation between Ukraine and the alliance. Minister Hryshchenko confirmed this in a comment for The Day, “Poland believes we stand a good chance to drastically speed up this movement. Among he things that caused this kind of reasoning were the latest decisions in Ukraine.” Will Kyiv and Brussels manage to raise the level of their cooperation? Will Ukraine be able to begin fulfilling the NATO Membership Action Plan as early as this year? Many commentators point out that very much will depend on the course of the presidential campaign in Ukraine. Undoubtedly, Kyiv’s achievements in armed forces reform and participation in the Iraq coalition force will be taken into account. Incidentally, Warsaw is rife with rumors that the next NATO summit will be devoted to the Iraq problem, including the alliance’s possible participation in the stabilization effort. The positive assessment of the Ukrainian peacekeepers in Iraq by NATO member states only increases the chances that Kyiv and Brussels will intensify the level of their cooperation.

The presidents of Ukraine and Poland will also make another contribution to their already rich experience of bilateral relations: it is planned that Leonid Kuchma and Aleksander Kwasniewski will meet on February 12 in Gdansk.