Saakashvili shortening his presidential term

TBILISI-President Michael Saakashvili of Georgia has approved a decision that satisfies everyone by moving the date of the presidential elections from the fall of 2008 to Jan. 5, 2008. Saakashvili suggested holding a referendum on the date of holding the parliamentary elections on the same day as the snap presidential elections. The president has thus fulfilled the main demands of the opposition and put an end to the lengthy confrontation in the country.

GIVE ME A MANDATE!

Saakashvili aired these statements on the evening of Nov. 8, the day after the participants of an oppositionists’ meeting was dispersed. “Georgia is now on the path of great changes, therefore I need an unambiguous mandate to implement more decisive actions. This will enable us to resist any external threats and any pressure exerted on the country,” the president said in his televised address to the Georgian people.

According to Georgian law, the president has no right to re-schedule the elections: this is a prerogative of parliament. But in view of everything, there will be no problem with this since the parliamentary majority consists of a party loyal to the president, the Single National Movement.

“The president held consultations with members of his team,” Deputy Head of the Parliamentary Commission on Legal Questions Nino Kalandadze told us. “He insistently demanded that the parliamentarians not hinder the re-scheduling of the elections. It is most likely to happen this way.” According to the Constitution of Georgia, the president must resign within 45 days after the elections. Parliamentary head Nino Burjanadze will fulfill the duties of head of state until a new president is elected.

The referendum will be conducted simultaneously with the presidential elections. Georgian citizens will have to define the terms of holding the parliamentary elections. They were originally scheduled for October 2008, but the opposition insistently demanded that they be re-scheduled to the spring. “Let these significant decisions be taken by the people, not the members of the opposition. This will again prove the democratic nature of our state,” Saakashvili stated.

It has also become clear that the state of emergency will be cancelled soon in Georgia because the elections cannot be scheduled under a state of emergency, and the stabilization of the situation in the country is conducive to this.

ELECTIONS UNDER COERCION

Many analysts are plagued by the question: what made the president take such a step? If he had made such decisions a few days ago, it would have been possible to avoid force and all its repercussions. There are several explanations.

Some experts consider that Saakashvili’s Western partners forced him to make certain compromises. It is no secret that the US did not support the latest steps of the Georgian authorities. Various influential organizations did not support the president either. For example, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour said that the dispersal of the peaceful rally and the clampdown on the oppositional mass media were serious grounds for worry. NATO’s General Secretary Jaap de Hoop Scheffer stated openly that the “recent steps taken by the Georgian government do not correspond to Euroatlantic values.”

There is another theory: Saakashvili scheduled the presidential elections for a time that is most suitable to him. Less than two months remain before Jan. 5, and the opposition will hardly be able to prepare in an adequate way. “Such a short deadline will also create problems for the president, but he possesses a huge administrative resource,” political scientist David Chavchavadze said. “If the opposition proposes several people as candidates, they will probably not be able to beat Saakashvili. And two months are not enough for a single charismatic leader to appear.”

OPPOSITION SEARCHING FOR A CANDIDATE

Despite all the difficulties and pitfalls, the opposition is celebrating a victory. “This was the only correct decision in the situation that had emerged,” the leader of Georgia’s Path Party Salome Zurabishvili stated. “One can only regret that the president needed to use force to make this decision, which has hardly improved our country’s image.”

Members of the opposition parties are conducting intensive consultations with each other. Their goal is to propose one person as candidate for the future presidential elections. It is not inconceivable that the opposition will surprise everyone and propose a “dark horse,” a candidate who does not belong to any party.

Only the Labor Party is not taking part in these battles, because a criminal case has been launched against its leader Shalva Natelashvili. He is accused of links with Russian intelligence services. According to our information, Natelashvili and his family have already left Georgia and are in the Russian Federation. Other members of the opposition who are suspected of links with Russian intelligence are now being interrogated as witnesses by the prosecutor’s office.

SITUATION RETURNING TO NORMAL

Street traffic in Tbilisi has been restored. The number of soldiers and anti-terrorist commandos has significantly decreased on Rustaveli Prospect, although policemen can still be seen in the parliament building. The Imedi and Avrasia television channels are still not on the air, while Russian television channels and foreign television news channels, including BBC and CNN, are broadcasting via cable networks. Many public figures hope that the timeframe of the state of emergency will be reduced because the situation is getting back to normal.

Meanwhile, Parliamentary Speaker Nino Burjanadze and the leaders of the opposition had a meeting with Patriarch of All Georgia Ilia II. It is believed that the upcoming presidential elections were discussed at the meeting.

Observers think that President Saakashvili is taking a serious but well-weighed risk in scheduling the early elections because the opposition still does not have an alternative leader who could compete with him.