Russia Study Center being formed in Ukraine

Edward Lucas concludes in his book The New Cold War that the West was wrong when it assumed that the confrontation with Russia was over. On the contrary, after the Soviet Union’s collapse Russia proceeded to build up its strength and show revisionist ambitions, as graphically evidenced by the war between Russia and Georgia, ending with the latter losing 20 percent of territory while seeking EU and NATO membership.

In Ukraine, too, it was naively believed that the Northern neighbor would respect its sovereignty and territorial integrity – the more so that this was laid down in the “Great Ukraine-Russia Treaty” and in the Budapest Memorandum. Last year, however, showed that these documents were hardly worth the paper they were printed on. Russia annexed Crimea, contrary to all rules of international law and instruments previously signed. Russia is actually invading the Donbas with manpower and materiel.

This is something experts in Ukraine and in the West ought to have foreseen and recommended preventive measures. As it was, what institutions of Sovietologists and Kremlinologists existed were disbanded and Ukraine, after gaining national independence, found itself devoid of experts in that domain.

At present, the Ukrainian political leadership seems to have realized the mistake, considering that recently it was announced that a Russia Study Center would be established in Ukraine.

The following is an interview with Volodymyr OHRYZKO, ex-foreign minister of Ukraine.

He started by saying that “Our daily experience says we must have a state-of-the-art data processing facility to figure out what’s happening within the Russian Federation,” adding that the organizing committee was discussing technicalities and that the Russia Study Center would be launched before long.

“This [Center] is a team of diplomats, analysts, PR experts, people who are versed in Russia’s various fields of endeavor. This team will specialize in monitoring Russia’s national security, politics, economy, diplomacy, also the humanitarian domain. This will be the key objective. They’re working on a website and I hope they will come up with the first results by the end of February. We’ll let you media people know, of course.”

Anyone else to join your team?

“The action team is made up of just so many persons. We will ask other experts to join us – people with theoretical as well as practical experience in regard to Russia; people who have, over a number of years, developed a clear picture of that country and its specific structures while acting in the line of duty.”

What about the Sovietologists in the West?

“We’ll keep in touch with them. Our objective is to exchange useful data with other data-processing centers. It’s true that there have been no Russia study centers in Ukraine, and that there are several such big-time facilities in the West. They have far more room for research, of course. We will be glad to cooperate, but this will come later. Today we have to pass through the organization phase.”

One wonders about there having been no such study center over the 23 years of national independence.

“It’s never too late to correct a mistake. In the early 1990s we had the Institute for Studies of Russia under the aegis of the National Security and Defense Council. Then it was reorganized and the Russian study component was lost. That institution started focusing on many other issues. That was good. What was bad was the loss of focus on Russia. We must gauge our bearings and see what’s actually happening in Russia, and predict what will take place there six months, one or two years from now. I believe that this kind of research is of the utmost importance. Our team will do its best to help understand what is going on in Russia.”

And the end result? Submitting a report?

“Right. Reports will be submitted to pertinent conferences, roundtables, and so on. I mean data subject to public debate, although I can’t rule out the possibility of accumulating data that will have to be classified.”

COMMENTARIES

“WAR WITH RUSSIA IS JUST STARTING”

Yurii SHCHERBAK, writer, political journalist, public figure:

“I would like to greet Volodymyr Ohryzko’s initiative. It is very topical and something we badly need. When I served as an aide to the president of Ukraine, we had that Institute for Studies of Russia. In fact, they provided me with very interesting data. That was under the Kuchma regime, when Ukraine was partially, if not wholly, controlled by Russia. Of course, [the new research team’s] information activities should be very serious, considering that the [new] institution [i.e., Russia Study Center] must closely follow events and provide recommendations regarding the consequences of the hair-raising Nazi-like propaganda which is dominating Russia’s media, brainwashing the Russian man in the street and his counterparts in a number of European countries.

“This Center also requires an intelligence component – I mean classified data. Using open sources to study the situation in Russia is important, but we must have access to classified data. This Center will not be effective without tangible support from the state, including the budget that will provide for special aspects of its work. I believe that the Center should be subordinated to the National Security and Defense Council, and I hope all of this will be done before long. Russia is currently Ukraine’s number-one strategic enemy, so we must learn about our enemy as much as we can, in order to get the upper hand.

“There are such data-processing centers in the West, mostly privately owned. They’re very much alive and kicking. We must not separate ourselves from the state, because the state isn’t our enemy. I will reiterate my formula: Ukraine is a belated state. Our national independence came to be at least one hundred years too late. Our polity started taking shape 100-150 years too late. This is our reality. We are too late doing practically anything. The war with Russia is just starting. It won’t end overnight. I’m afraid it won’t end several years from now.”

“THERE ARE NO SERIOUS STUDIES OF RUSSIA”

Marius LAURINAVICIUS, senior analyst, Eastern Europe Studies Center, Vilnius:

“We in the Baltic States, you in Ukraine, not only the West, have started seriously studying Russia of late. I believe that experts on Russia across the world can be counted on one’s fingers. After the end of the Cold War, we all of us believed that Russia had become different, that it would pose no threat [to the international community], and so all serious Russia studies were terminated. Europe and the United States concentrated on China and the Middle East. Come to think of it, we know little if at all about the essence and structure of the current regime in Russia. We have composed our myths, including about Putin personifying today’s Russia as its absolute ruler. We know nothing about how that regime is functioning, who makes what decisions, who can influence the decision-making process. It got so that when Russia came up with its new military doctrine identifying NATO as its main adversary, we, being NATO members, stuck to the idea that Russia was our strategic partner. Unless the West awakens itself to the grim reality, Russia may well topple the European Union and NATO. The West appears to be taking its time awakening itself to this reality. For all I know, there are no serious studies of Russia.”

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The Editors have just learned that the team of experts of the Russia Study Center will include Mr. Yevhen Marchuk, head of the Ukraine-NATO International Secretariat on Security and Civil Cooperation, and Mr. Volodymyr Vasylenko, an expert on international law.