“Reformatting the coalition”

Viktor Yanukovych, the leader of the Party of Regions, told the BBC on Feb. 22 that a one- vote parliamentary majority won’t work in the Verkhovna Rada, and the only way out of the current situation is either to reformat the coalition or call a new snap election.

But Yanukovych failed to specify who he would like to do this “reformatting” with. After the ill-fated vote on state grain procurements, some political figures began toying with the idea of forming an alliance between the Party of Regions (PR) and the BYuT. But in all probability the PR leader meant some other political party. The dissension and differences in Our Ukraine (OU) clearly instilled hope in the Regionals: the growing number of OU “turncoats” plus the Lytvyn bloc may lay the groundwork for a new coalition.

The Lytvyn bloc has long favored this option. In the view of Mykhailo Syrota, neither an Orange nor a White-Blue majority can be effective. The BYuT and OU think that reformatting is unlikely because an individual faction member cannot make a decision on withdrawing from the coalition: this decision should be voted for by the entire faction. “Let’s assume hypothetically that a faction leaves the majority. This will automatically lead to the cabinet’s resignation,” said the BYuT faction leader Ivan Kyrylenko. “It will hardly be possible to form another coalition today. The differences are too deep among the parliamentary parties on a number of issues, such as Euro-integration, NATO, and even language. So I see no prospects for a reformatted coalition. Should this happen, it will be a crushing defeat for the party that initiated this.”

We asked The Day’s regional experts to comment on how realistic the prospect is to reformat the coalition and what this word means, translated into normal language.

Oleksandr MOSTIPAKA, chairman of the Chernivtsi oblast branch of the Committee of Ukrainian Voters:

“Any ‘reformatting’ will hardly streamline the situation in parliament or ensure stability in the country. Furthermore, if a way out the crisis is found now, another one may reemerge in the future. The point is not the ideological differences among the three main forces but their election promises. Each of them swore that it would not cede to anybody else, each speculated on ideological matters without committing itself to solving social and economic problems. Some promised Euro-integration and accession to NATO, others pledged not to allow this but to promote a rapprochement with Russia, and others simply promised to keep Yanukovych from coming to power. If the representatives of any of these forces abandon their proclaimed ideas, they will run the risk of losing their voters’ support, and any new model of the coalition means reneging on the promises that were made.

“The current parliament is ineffectual, and all the crises that are emerging in its work are artificial. The problems that allegedly impede its work today, such as joining the NATO Membership Action Plan, are absolutely far- fetched. These are not real problems but a struggle for power among the three groupings: the BYuT, the pro-presidential force, and the Party of Regions. Today we have to develop and reform the economy. This is the only way we can solve our burning problems, but no one wants to do this. You can dish out money endlessly to the underprivileged and raise salaries, but this will only aggravate economic problems instead of solving them. All the spirals of inflation under various governments have always been caused by doling out money.

“Moreover, the next elections will not change the situation because they will bring the same political forces to power. The situation is developing in a circular fashion: if one of them wins, another will organize a crisis in order to return to power or destabilize the winner.

To change the parliamentary setup, the election law should be amended and we have to switch to a mixed system, but the current Verkhovna Rada is hardly prepared for this. Moreover, word has it that the entry threshold may be raised. In this case, parliament may end up with just three forces, or even two under certain conditions, which will rule on different banks of the Dnipro. I see no way out of this situation today, and there can hardly be one. The country is being gradually drawn into a presidential election campaign, but another parliamentary election is possible before that.”

Oles STAROVOIT, member of the Lviv Oblast Council, Candidate of Sciences (Philosophy):

“Any reformatting of the coalition is a departure from the two main promises that were given to voters: the creation of a coalition with the BYuT and the refusal to set up a single political force. Yet, while declaring unity, some politicians are showing disunity.

“That’s why I take a dim view of this reformatting. I think that they should work in the existing format even if somebody does not like it. Naturally, there is another way: some MPs should resign. There is even another way, but it calls for greater responsibility: a political party convenes a congress and decides to withdraw from the coalition. This will, of course, pave the way to a fresh election. But any other institution that decides to quite the coalition (a deputy, faction, party leader, presidium, or political council) is not empowered to destroy the coalition. Only a congress of the Our Ukraine-People’s Self- Defense bloc or a BYuT congress can have this kind of power.

“The bloc comprises nine parties, and I admit that anything is possible in this case. This may have the following consequences. First, if the Party of Regions allies with Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense, this will place the Regionals in the forefront of Ukrainian politics and restore the situation that existed in the previous parliament. Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense will have to march in the wake of their ideas. Second, this will mean the collapse of the NU-NS as a political force. The point is not so much the fact that it will betray (this word sets everyone’s teeth on edge) the voters’ interests as the fundamental principle of their own political platform. We will not see them in the next elections. The electorate will end up at the disposal of the BYuT, which, as the opposition, will wield tremendous clout in the next presidential elections.

“And if a new BYuT-PR coalition is formed? In my opinion, this is even more unlikely. First of all, these forces are too dissimilar. Second, it in no way suits the current prime minister. Naturally, it is also impossible to form a coalition of three forces. They are unable to reach a compromise on any key issue. What is possible is a coalition reinforced by the Lytvyn bloc. In my view, there are insignificant differences here, mostly of a tactical nature. Even if, by all accounts, people do not share the ideology of Our Ukraine, they have no right to quit the coalition. They can quit a party, but not a coalition. I have described the situation in the light of political responsibility. But it is difficult to foresee a situation that will arise out of some politicians’ irresponsibility. They will be making unilateral decisions that will undermine the very existence of the coalition and the viability of the Verkhovna Rada.

“In particular, Our Ukraine will be taking certain steps to forestall the ruin of the coalition. Last Wednesday Our Ukraine’s presidium discussed the situation. On March 1 the party will hold a council to adopt a number of decisions and, if necessary, it will convene a congress in the nearest future.”

Viacheslav SHATALOV, political scientist, Luhansk:

“It is high time the coalition is reformatted. This is the most burning question in Ukrainian politics today. Society can see that the current president and his closest associates, particularly his top staff, have clearly opted for the complete usurpation of power by the Guarantor of the Constitution. Moreover, these people are going to radically change the Fundamental Law and hold a nationwide and essentially illegitimate referendum on the adoption of a new constitution that calls for wide-ranging changes in Ukraine’s system of government. Three years ago, following the constitutional reform, our state abruptly tilted towards a parliamentary republic in which all major powers are to be exclusively transferred to parliament for the next few years. However, by his latest intentions and initiatives Viktor Yushchenko has shown that he does not recognize the Verkhovna Rada as a single and principal decision-making center in the country, which in fact runs counter to the current Constitution of Ukraine. I think that the sane forces in parliament, which are keenly concerned about the future of the Ukrainian state, can and must take advantage of backroom deals. This method may be far from lawful, but there is simply no other way out of the current political crisis. I am convinced that a new parliamentary coalition will be formed very soon in the following format: the Party of Regions and the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc. In this scenario, the prime minister will retain her office, while Viktor Yanukovych will rightfully assume the office of Verkhovna Rada speaker. This alliance should not be regarded as reneging on election promises because these political forces’ actions will be aimed at attaining the main goal — creating the right conditions for raising the living standards, which may become an integrative idea for the people and a precondition for reconciliation among the main competing political projects.”

Volodymyr HAZIN, associate professor at Kamianets-Podilsky National University:

“The current lineup in the Ukrainian parliament generally reflects the moods and political preferences of Ukrainian citizens. In particular, the current government coalition is a logical manifestation of the sentiments of most Ukrainians. I would like to emphasize a few things. No matter how insistently the Regionals may claim that they won a victory in the last elections, it is a totally unfounded claim. The voting took place in the following format: the Orange — the White-Blue — a third force (the communists, the Lytvyn Bloc, and others). Therefore, the Orange ones won (it made no difference for many people whether they voted for the BYuT or the NU-NS).

“What swung the vote in favor of the Orange forces was their Europeanness and declaration of the necessity to defend national interests and democratic values and to uphold the ideals of the Orange Revolution which, in spite of everything, remains in the memory of most Ukrainians as a moment of national pride.

“Naturally, there was also the personal factor (first of all, the charisma of the BYuT leader). The opponents were countering with slogans in support of a rapprochement with Russia, the official status of the Russian language, and preventing Ukraine from joining NATO. In fact, this was an appeal to those who are still in thrall to Soviet-era ideas. There was also a regional factor here (voting for ‘our side’). What can a reformatted coalition bring, and is this at all possible? In my opinion, in the conditions of Ukrainian politics, which is still a long way from European standards, anything is possible.”