Putin was trying to catch him. But he failed for the time being

On December 18 it was quiet in the Verkhovna Rada. That was the first normal working day of the new parliament – without clashes. Speaker Volodymyr Rybak called upon the MPs to keep to the regulations, he even showed a German newspaper which published a photo of the fight during the first sessions of the Ukrainian parliament.

“The analysis of the review of Ukrainian and foreign mass media of the past four years proves that unfortunately there are elements of destruction that produce a harmful impact on the authority of the Ukrainian parliament and negative effect on the image of our state on the whole. This is an issue of Berliner Kurier. You can see our parliament in the photo, you can see the faces, everything is shown here. The article is entitled ‘The Ukrainian parliament is ready for the fight.’ For what fight is Ukrainian parliament ready?” Rybak asked.

But the MPs shortly resumed their work. Having approved two decrees, the calendar plan and the order of highlighting of the VR work, the session of the Rada was closed. The next session is scheduled for December 25.

However, the main question of the day was surely the scheduled visit of Ukrainian president to Russia. The MPs started namely with this: each faction expressed its viewpoint. “Today the president is going to hold negotiations in Moscow and sign a document. Ukraine wants to know what the president is going to sign.

“Why are the important questions for Ukraine always approved behind the scenes and in untransparent way? Why we come to know about them only when it is already too late to change anything? We support partner’s relations with our neighbors, we are again giving up the national interests,” the leader of UDAR Vitalii Klitschko was indignant. Similar opinions have been expressed by the leaders of the factions of Svoboda, Oleh Tiahnybok, and Fatherland, Arsenii Yatseniuk.

“We are being told about the economic benefits from the Customs Union. But this benefit is extremely doubtful. The Russian Federation, apart from economic preferences and attempts to resolve its own problems, has serious political ambitions. For we have been witness as of late that they are trying to build the Russian World, sovietizing Ukrainian education, occupying the national and information space, the Russian business considers the Ukrainian strategic enterprises as plum,” Tiahnybok said in his speech.

Fifteen minutes later the opposition in the parliament hall started to applaud after Yatseniuk notified that Yanukovych’s visit to Moscow was cancelled. Behind the scenes in parliament we tried to learn from the representatives of various political forces, why?

“I think that Viktor Yanukovych is not ready to make concessions before Russians,” Eduard Hurvitz, member of the UDAR faction told The Day. “The Ukrainian society percieves in a calm way the question of free trade with the CIS countries, however the question of the Customs Union is straining the citizens, because it contradicts the Western integration. In my opinion, today we should above all achieve the interaction of various political forces in the country. Only when there will be support of the course from the people and various parties, the power will be able to act in a calm way.”

Andrii Senchenko from Fatherland was much harsher in the conversation with The Day: “The visit was cancelled because they haven’t reached an agreement. What do Russians want? They want to turn Ukraine into a gubernia with all consequences following from this. What does Yanukovych want? He wants cheap gas. His statement concerning the gradual joining the Customs Union was a bad copying of Kuchma. The attempts of multivector policy performed by Yanukovych looked quite awkward. Incidentally, hand was given to Kuchma at first, then they stopped doing so, and Yanukovych ahieved this much faster. Russians are using the possibility of his losing the power to exort the pressure. But Yanukovych will anyway lose it – everything is going in this direction. Taking into consideration its national interests Russia will try to remove Yanukovych, if there is such need, and it won’t do so if it does not need to.”

Journalists tried to compensate the lack of information by asking questions to Regionnaires. Leonid Kozhara, PoR expert on foreign policy was “beating off”: “Among the main reasons one can consider the fact that for the present day it has not been defined how one can partially join the regulations of the Customs Union. If we take, for example, the European Union, partial accession is possible there, from energy charter to transport corridor, etc. Ukraine at the moment cannot join the Customs Union, because it would contradict the regulations of the Ukrainian legislation on European integration. But if the Customs Union is interested, Ukraine may partially join certain branch documents. This is not a membership, rather joining certain regulatory acts. But probably for the present day there is no certainty concerning the partial accession to the documents of the Customs Union. I think Ukraine in perspective can become the only country in the world to have free trade with the European Union and the Customs Union. We are trying to achieve for Ukraine such advantages, depending on what our partners will allow us to do, and in a way that will cause no conflict between our relations in the East and in the West.”

COMMENTARY

Hryhorii PEREPELYTSIA, Doctor of Political Sciences, professor at Taras Shevchenko National University, Kyiv:

“Moscow seeks to break Yanukovych’s resistance. Apparently, Russia has taken the position of harsh pressing, so that Ukraine did not have any opportunity to promote the alternative to entering the Customs Union. Kyiv’s strategy aimed at deepening the cooperation with the Customs Union according to the 3+1 formula does not satisfy Moscow at the moment. The Kremlin has made it clear that this formula is no matter for discussion. It has also refused from the strategy of cooperation with the European Union, which was copied from the formula of Ukraine’s participation in the CIS, when it does not sign the statute documents, and practically is not a member of the CIS. I think Kyiv was exploting this formula and tried to make it acceptable for Moscow, but the Kremlin has also declined it. It clearly demands full membership in the Customs Union, with no other alternative. Thus Ukraine is facing the following option: either it enters the Customs Union, or the discrimation policy in the relations with Ukraine will continue.

“Today Yanukovych has practically no one to rely on in Ukraine. The question is not about Yanukovych’s desire to join the Customs Union. We cannot see any strong desire in this respect, because it will deal a big blow on the state budget. Since the Customs Service is the main source of budgetary revenues, Ukraine won’t be able to use customs fees anymore – Moscow will grab everything. Ukraine will receive only some share. This will be a colossal blow on the state budget, our importers, and prices in Ukraine. Our country is dependent on the import, and it will be regulated by Russia, not Ukraine. This will be a disaster for business. I think Yanukovych is aware of these problems, but on the other hand we can see that the PR campaign is being carried out with an aim to prepare the social opinion to Ukraine’s accession to the Customs Union. Under the conditions of this pressure, Yanukovych practically has no one to rely on. We can see that the government wing which suports the European Integration and is represented by Khoroshkovsky has lost. Khoroshkovsky has resigned. However, Azarov has been appointed prime minister again, which does not play in hands of the supporters of the accession to the Customs Union.

“Yanukovych cannot rely on the opposition either. Today we are witness to political face-off between the government and the opposition. On the other hand, Yanukovych does not make any concessions before the opposition. So, there is a mutual disagreement. There are no signals for agreement, except for abstract slogans, like calls to unite and work.

“The power is on no friendly terms with medium business. All the more so, it cannot be the stronghold of the power. Moreover, the arguments of experts concerning the Customs Union are not being made public. The Customs Union is an economic rather than political bloc, this is a new formation of the primary Russian state which will later give way to something bigger, like Eurasian Union.”