New assets against the old ones
Experts say Kolobov’s promotion signals the creation of a new “containment system” within Ukraine’s current administration
Yurii Kolobov, ex-first deputy chairman of the board, National Bank of Ukraine, was appointed as Minister of Finance of Ukraine. The man is rumored to be a close friend of the Yanukovych family. His career took this dramatic turn after the appointment of Serhii Arbuzov as head of the NBU (they say that Serhii is a chum buddy of one of the president’s sons).
Kolobov’s promotion wasn’t unexpected, considering that the man had been mentioned as one of Finance Minister Fedir Yaroshenko’s retirement. Questions, however, remain, considering that running a bank and supervising central budget appropriations are different stories. Battle-hardened experts on finance are known to have failed to cope with this task in independent Ukraine. Yurii Kolobov has no such experience.
“This is a loss for the National Bank and a gain for the Ministry of Finance. I think everything will be OK; we’ll cooperate in the most effective manner possible,” says NBU head Serhii Arbuzov
Expert opinions vary.
“His appointment caught everyone unawares, even if predictable on the part of the president’s team,” Viacheslav YUTKIN, first deputy chairman of the board, Prominvestbank, told The Day.
According to the political analyst, Kostiantyn MATVIIENKO, this is one of several such promotions involving people who lack experience: “Kolobov is a financier, not a politician; he doesn’t know how to go about supervising central budget appropriations.” He believes that this appointment serves the interest of individuals or groups that can exert the greatest deal of influence on the head of state, and that Ukrainian society can only hope to see such budget appropriations properly managed.
Volodymyr LANOVY, ex-Minister of Finance, director, Market Reform Study Center: “This appointment means that Azarov will keep the central budget under control, that he needs a more or less decent yes-man who is close enough to the president. I can see no change [for the better].”
Volodymyr LUPATSII, executive director, Sophia Social Study Center, says there are fewer practical opportunities to asses the new finance minister’s professionalism, in view of the current economic challenges; on the one hand, it takes a coordinated effort on the ministry and NBU’s part now that the financial crisis is underway; on the other hand, there is the risk of losing the NBU’s independent status, what with the pressure from current central budget appropriations.
Experts also don’t rule out the possibility of such presidential proteges gradually elbowing out people who represent “big capital.”
Volodymyr FESENKO, director, Penta Applied Political Study Center, disagrees, proposing to consider the new finance minister as just another event in a series of recent cadre reshuffles.
The impression is that Yanukovych is trying to enhance the Cabinet by appointing people versed in economics and finance, who know the ropes. However, all three recent appointments have something to do with business; they are bound to realize the necessity and logic of economic reform.
Fesenko says Yanukovych doesn’t want to share his monopoly of political power with anyone: “The president understands that his son’s friends and proteges aren’t prepared to assume formal responsibility for the Cabinet’s effective performance; hence the president’s latest cadre reshuffles – he wants to have a balance of influence and a system capable of containing the Cabinet, keeping it under control.”
