NATO Membership: Wishful Thinking or Reality?

Ukraine may receive an invitation to join NATO as early as the end of this month. Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Antanas Valionis made this sensational statement in a recent BBC interview. “Only Ukraine can expect to receive an invitation to join the alliance in Vilnius,” he said. On April 21 the Lithuanian capital will host a summit of NATO foreign ministers, who will hold talks within the framework of the Ukraine-NATO Commission. According to Valionis, one of the instructions he received from the NATO secretary general concerns Ukraine: “The commission has to endorse a specific membership action plan for Ukraine. We will also be discussing Georgia’s prospects.”

Is this true? How realistic is the possibility that NATO will raise its level of cooperation with Ukraine? A ranking NATO official said in an interview with The Day that so far Brussels is keeping Kyiv informed about all decisions that might be approved at the Vilnius summit. It’s an open secret that Lithuania is one of the consistent supporters of Ukraine’s NATO membership. Therefore, it is possible that the Lithuanian foreign minister expressed the opinion of a group of countries rather than NATO on the whole, which has 26 members.

There are obstacles outside the political plane as well. Is Ukraine prepared for this? This May will be three years since Ukraine announced its desire to join NATO. Although much has been accomplished, no government official will hazard the opinion that Ukraine is genuinely prepared. This applies to a variety of spheres — politics, the army, and the economy. In any case, the decision to raise the level of cooperation with NATO will look more like a political move, because the new government has yet to take any definitive steps to prove its commitment to the declared Euro-Atlantic course of integration. The Day asked Ukraine’s First Deputy Foreign Minister Anton BUTEIKO to comment on whether Ukraine is ready for NATO membership.

“Is Ukraine genuinely prepared to raise its level of cooperation with NATO?”

“In terms of current Ukrainian legislation, our country is ready to raise the level of cooperation with NATO all the way to membership. This issue has been settled by means of the Fundamentals of Ukraine’s Foreign Policy endorsed by parliament back in 1993. This document reads in part that Ukraine shall ensure its security as part of the common European security system, the main components of which are the OSCE and NATO. It further states that membership in this system reflects Ukraine’s national interests. Naturally, it is impossible to be part of the security system without joining its components. Therefore, this document provides the legal groundwork for raising the level of Ukraine’s cooperation with NATO all the way to membership.”

“What did Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Antanas Valionis mean exactly when he spoke about inviting Ukraine to NATO? Did he mean advancement to the Intensified Dialog level or something else?”

“It would be inappropriate for me to comment on the words of a minister of a friendly country. All I can say is that we can only welcome any actions that are aimed at intensifying the relationship between Ukraine and NATO. Such actions will be consistent with both Ukraine’s legislation and its national interests.”

“Is there agreement among NATO members on Ukraine’s membership?”

“We are making efforts to get all NATO members to agree on advancing the level of relations with Ukraine.”

“A high level of public support is required to make accession to NATO possible. Opinion polls show that it is very low in Ukraine. Will this be an obstacle to establishing a higher level of cooperation with NATO? What is being done to improve the situation?”

“Instead of a low level of support, opinion polls show that the Ukrainian population is largely uninformed about the alliance. Eight years ago this level was much higher. One incident comes to mind in this connection. After I was recalled from the US as Ukraine’s ambassador, I appeared on television to talk about the possible pros and cons of Ukraine’s potential accession to NATO. At the time I had no idea about the changes to this policy. While much was said about Ukraine’s commitment to European and Euro-Atlantic integration, a secret directive was issued, forbidding Ukrainian ministries and departments to discuss issues relating to Ukraine’s potential accession to NATO. The new government will do its utmost to inform the population about the benefits of Ukraine’s entry into NATO. This will demolish the stereotypes about NATO that were perpetuated during decades of Soviet rule, and people will come to understand NATO’s real role, much like what happened in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, and former republics of the USSR — the Baltic nations.”

“What are the implications of the Intensified Dialog for Ukraine? How long will Ukraine have to cooperate with NATO within

this format before it can move on to the Membership Action Plan?”

“It means more intensive measures to prepare Ukraine for NATO membership criteria. By criteria I mean real efforts to make Ukraine fully democratic and bring the armed forces in line with the high standards of NATO member states.”

“It is rumored that France and Germany object to Ukraine’s accession to NATO because they fear that this might adversely affect Russia’s relationship with the EU. How much truth is there to these rumors?”

“Many things have changed fundamentally in Ukraine. The president and government overwhelmingly support Ukraine’s active progress toward NATO membership. The Orange Revolution has shown that Ukrainian society wants to live according to the standards of NATO member states. For the first time Ukraine’s political arena has a popularly supported force whose platform clearly states that it will work to ensure that Ukraine joins NATO. In simple terms, we have political forces that can convince the public that Ukraine’s membership in the EU and NATO is a major advantage for present-day Russia. In this situation Ukraine as a NATO member will positively influence Russia, because the familial ties between many Ukrainians and Russians will be the factor that will rule out unfounded anti-Russian sentiments within NATO. We should adopt a philosophy based on the principles of cooperation and not confrontation, as before.”