Hunting season for majority constituency nominees open
We hear about two Ukraines — East and West — and that they are strikingly different. This allegation hardly reflects all the consequences of the parliamentary elections. The campaign actually showed that we have not two but three different Ukraines, in terms of the political preferences harbored by most of the populace. The third Ukraine is made up of the majority constituencies.
Suppose we start with the eastern regions, traditionally considered Ukraine’s Red belt where most voted for those promising a reunion with Russia and return to the socialist paradise. Now the situation is different, mainly in terms of political color. There have been no significant cadre changes in the regions, yet the new local powers that be no longer have to capitalize on Communist/Socialist nostalgia. A new regional elite is taking shape, still to adopt a new party wardrobe. Wearing For a United Ukraine (Ukrainian ZaYedU) costumes is just trying something on, as evidenced by the undeniable victory of the local elite in the districts, in contrast to the shaky equilibrium between the Communists and United Ukrainians in the party elections. Equilibrium in the east and an obvious fiasco in the west. Remarkably, the majority nominees of those in power were absolute winners in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts — but analysts had predicted the outcome long before the election, because the administrative resource was so strong there. Who would want to bother with such problem regions? In the end, Donetsk oblast produced 23 United Ukrainian deputies from 25 election districts. In fact, two- thirds of the ZaYedU turnover result from Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv (in terms of votes collected in the majority constituencies). But for these three regions, the For a United Ukraine bloc would have had a disastrously small faction in parliament. In other words, unity has so far been demonstrated — not without problems — by three regions.
In the West, the picture was entirely different. Over three-quarters of the seats in five Galician and Volyn oblasts went to the Yushchenko bloc, with other blocs getting seats only in remote localities (like Oleksandr Abdulin of the Democratic Union, elected by a village election district in Rivne oblast, whereas his comrades Ihor Bakai and Oleksandr Danylchuk lost their seats in the same region). The victories of Taras Chornovil, Taras Stetskiv, and other Our Ukraine nominees were predictable and fitted perfectly into the election campaign pattern. What more could one expect after Andriy Shkil was elected to the parliament while in custody awaiting trial?
In other words, if we had just the western and eastern regions, we would have two leading parties in Verkhovna Rada, the “western” and the “eastern” one, with all the attendant consequences. Fortunately, we also have the central territories where the election turnout proved most interesting and poorly predicted. While no one was surprised by Petro Poroshenko passing muster, the singing rector Mykhailo Poplavsky’s success in Kirovohrad oblast showed that we still have unsold stock — unintimidated electorates, quite a few of them. It was also in the central regions that Ivan Pliushch, Oleksandr Volkov, and a number of veteran lawmakers retained their seats; it was from the central territories that the new parliament received a hundred new members whose favors the Verkhovna Rada giants will fight to win, to make their claims to the bulk of majority look more creditable.
— P.S.: Through with processing the ballots, Central Elections Committee Chairman Mykhailo Riabets announced that 18,335,756 voters had cast their ballots for the six parties surmounting the 4% barrier. According to proportional representation Our Ukraine will have 70 seats in the parliament, the Communist Party of Ukraine 59, ZaYedU 36, Tymoshenko bloc and Socialist Party of Ukraine, 21 each; SDPU(o), 18. As per one-seat turnout, ZaYedU netted another 66 seats; Our Ukraine 42; CPU 7; SDPU(0) 5, and SPU 3.
In other words, Our Ukraine will have 112 seats, the KPU 66, ZaYedU 102, SPU 24, SDPU(o) 23, Tymoshenko bloc 21, Democratic Party-Democratic Union bloc 4; and Kyiv Mayor Omelchenko’s Yednist (Unity) 3.
The self-nominees, getting a total of 93 seats, will constitute the cadre resource for the future legislative fractions. The six winning blocs will vie for them, using a variety of techniques. This contest is likely to become the key intrigue in the aftermath of the election campaign.
