Change of orientation

It looks as if Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko has completely rejected the idea of building a union state with Russia and is thereby changing the state’s foreign policy orientation. During a meeting with Ukrainian journalists in Minsk he talked about building a union state of Belarus and Ukraine, which everybody would reckon with.

“We could gain a lot in the world for our people because it would be an influential state,” the Belarusian president said. He has no doubt that his idea is feasible. “God Himself commanded the Belarusians and Ukrainians to be together: we are very close and alike,” Lukashenko added.

It was news to Ukrainian journalists that the Belarusian leader, who had criticized the democratic Orange Revolution, was expressing sympathy with Ukraine’s President Viktor Yushchenko. “Yushchenko and I always feel very comfortable during meetings,” the Belarusian leader said. He also noted that he considers the participation of Ukraine’s president in the summit attended by the heads of the CIS states, which will be held in Minsk next week, to be very important. Interesting, Lukashenko called all the Ukrainian leaders — Yulia Tymoshenko, Viktor Yushchenko, and Viktor Yanukovych — pro-Ukrainian.

But the Belarusian leader’s major aim is to conclude an agreement on energy security questions. Belarus is experiencing a period of worsening relations with its ally Russia, which announced a gas price increase to $200 per 1,000 cubic meters from $46.68, and demanding that Belarusian export duties on oil and oil products be unified with Russia’s, as Belarus’s are lower and allow for the profitable resale of raw materials in the West.

Therefore, Lukashenko’s desire to find new allies in order to resist Russia is quite understandable. It looks as if Minsk wants Kyiv as an ally. “Belarus and Ukraine only have to come to an agreement, and the whole configuration of economic and political relationships in this region will change,” Lukashenko thinks. “This will be very profitable for Belarusians and even more profitable for Ukrainians, and there are possibilities for this.”

The Belarusian leader said that Ukraine and Belarus have a colossal potential and the necessary levers to bear on gas and oil questions. Lukashenko thinks it is possible to coordinate a tariff policy on Russian gas transit to Europe. “Would it be worse if we conducted a single policy in the gas negotiations with Russia? It would be better. Let us do this.”

The Belarusian leader even named his price for the energy agreement as a stimulus for Ukraine. He wants to sign “in one packet” all the documents on unregulated Belarusian-Ukrainian problems: questions of the border, readmission, and regulation of debt questions — “if the Ukrainian leadership is ready.” Lukashenko is also offering cooperation within a very pragmatic framework, leaving politics aside: “We are not used to meddling in a sovereign state’s domestic affairs. And we expect the same attitude to our country.”

Ukraine’s first reaction to the Belarusian leader’s proposals can be expected during Prime Minister Yanukovych’s visit to Belarus, where he will take part in negotiations in Minsk. As Ukraine’s prime minister noted during his meeting with First Deputy Prime Minister of Belarus Vladimir Semashko in Kyiv, one of the most promising trends in cooperation is the question of energy, which will be discussed in Minsk.

But it is doubtful that Ukraine will agree to Belarus’s conditions concerning an energy agreement to establish a single position on gas vis-a-vis Russia. It is clear that Ukraine may increase energy supplies to Belarus and even come to an arrangement with the state company Beltransgas about the possibilities of storing natural gas in Ukrainian warehouses for Belarusian consumers.

COMMENTARY

Leonid ZAIKO, director of the analytical Strategy Center, Belarus:

Alexander Lukashenko’s latest statements are not spur-of-the-moment. He stated some days ago that he is completely changing the foreign policy. What is going on here is an attempt to go beyond the patterns of conventional concepts. Until now Belarus’s foreign policy was Russia-oriented and anti-Western. Lately, a new element has appeared in the foreign policy — the Third World, the non-aligned movement. However, the Belarusian president started developing other variants at the same time. Since our main problem is energy resources, we are gambling on Ukraine. I don’t think that things are heading toward long-term strategic calculations, but the development of such a direction, when Belarus has to seek a new partner beyond Russia, is a really new element. This is not a conjuncture; this is a vector.

Of course, the Belarusian president would like to demonstrate to the Kremlin that Putin is a lame- duck president and that he should take into account Belarus’s serious advances on its path to resisting Russia’s pressure. To some extent, Lukashenko’s declaration about the formulation of a new foreign policy is formal. He has won a third term in office and will probably consider a fourth. It is quite possible that the president would like to prove Belarus’s great independence, now that he has found himself with a new status. That is why his statements cannot be regarded as an conjuncture linked to Russia’s gas price increase.

Lukashenko has clearly seen that one should not go too far with Moscow and the Kremlin. He has learned this lesson. And the steps that he is taking cannot be regarded exclusively from a utilitarian standpoint. This is largely an attempt to find new foreign policy vectors.

Lukashenko is a politician who is offering proposals. He delivered a speech to journalists and stated that he would like to unite Ukraine and Belarus’s transit powers. This has long been discussed by our experts. We have developed a strategic project on possible geopolitical situations on our territory. We had one model that maps out the efforts of the Baltic countries, Belarus, and Ukraine to unite to realize their common interests against Russia, especially in view of the fact that the Kremlin has adopted measures to raise the prices of energy resources. We have analyzed all the price increase dynamics for energy resources in the European countries. There have never been such sudden two- or three-fold changes in relations between Russia and the EU. The linear policy used to be acceptable everywhere. The moment has come when we should look for allies.

Has Lukashenko listened to what scholars have to say? He reads our publications very carefully and personally directs some TV programs. Being partly a producer, he watches the most striking political programs. After a while, intuitively feeling the approach of one factor or another that may be effectively used, he gives instructions to broadcast it, as in the case of the statement about developing cooperation with Ukraine. Lukashenko is doing this by himself, not listening to his advisors.

The idea to build a union state with Russia was not realized. The maximum that the Kremlin could offer was the post of First Deputy Prime Minister, with the right to be elected during the next presidential elections after Belarus became part of Russia.

The EU’s offers of assistance in exchange for democracy and observing human rights are not relevant for Lukashenko. The Belarusian government has not reacted to this in any way. Here the position is absolutely steadfast, and that is no surprise. According to sociological surveys, such values as democracy and human rights occupy seventh or eighth place in our ratings.