CARLOS PASCUAL: Our Ukraine and Party of Regions Coalition my open up interesting horizons for Ukraine
Carlos Pascual was US Ambassador to Ukraine in 2000-03, then he worked as Director, Office for the Reconstruction of Iraq and Afghanistan at the State Department. Now the ex-ambassador to Ukraine works for the Brookings Institution, specializing in US foreign policy, European issues, Ukraine and Russia. Carlos Pascual visited Ukraine recently as a participant in the Seminar “Yalta European Strategy.” He kindly agreed to an interview with The Day in regard to the coalition issues in this country.
How would you assess Ukraine’s recent coalition events?
Pascual: I think that Ukraine in a critical transformation phase. One of the positive aspects is that you are experiencing a true competition of political parties. Your people should not forget about this. Several years ago the situation was totally different. The political leaders ought to bear in mind the achievements made over the couple of past years, and then determine the national development guidelines relying on the best results of past experiences. Now you are in a crucial phase; Ukraine must make its choice as to what kind of administration it really wants, who will hold the leading posts in government and how they will reflect the views of the population.
Do you think that a broad coalition should formed to find a way out this political crisis?
Pascual: I don’t know what kind coalition will be right one. I think whatever coalition forms in Ukraine should get prepared to meet the interests and needs of the people. This issue doesn’t simply refer to politics or politicians who are taking a certain stand and who are in a position to form a coalition, after all has been said and done. They must have realistic programs [of action], ones sure to yield actual results that will satisfy the entire country. I don’t know when it will happen, but I believe that this a test [of sorts] to help the Ukrainian electorate see exactly who can yield tangible results or achieve success.
Do you believe that this “anticrisis” coalition, including communists, can serve as a reliable partner in Ukrainian-US relations? Won’t this have an adverse effect on Ukrainian-US relations?
Pascual: Honesty I don’t think that Ukraine a government coalition. They made a deal uniting the Party of Regions, Socialists, and Communists; they named their new speaker. Yet this did not complete the official formation of a coalition. New Ukraine and the Party of Regions are obviously negotiating various forms of coalition that can include the Communists. The Communist Party, however, has declared that it will not be a part of this coalition if it includes Our Ukraine.
There is no saying what this coalition will be like. I believe that the leading parties will be involved. Or that Our Ukraine and the Party of Regions will agree on cooperation. If they do, the question is who will become candidate prime minister and whether this candidate will represent the unifying [political] force in Ukraine. If they can’t make a deal, they will have to make their choice of what is best for the future of Ukraine.
If a coalition can be formed with Our Ukraine and the Party of Regions with similar pro-European programs, this may open up interesting horizons for Ukraine. I think that everyone is waiting to know exactly what is happening, the outcome of the negotiations.
Don’t you think that Ukraine has lost its chance of joining NATO in view of the current situation?
Pascual: I think that no decisions have been made concerning Ukraine’s EU and NATO memberships. Ukraine must carry out a large-scale program designed to demonstrate its adherence to the market and democratic agenda. If this country can do so, Ukraine will face opportunities of strong rapprochement and further integration into Europe. This must be the key test.
We know that you are specializing in matters pertaining to energy security. Do you believe that an “anticrisis” coalition, with Viktor Yanukovych as Prime Minister, will have better opportunities to revise the gas supply accords with Russia?
Pascual: I think that it is very important for Ukraine to have this gas agreement revised, because the current one rests on an ad hoc basis. The price was agreed upon for a term of six months, then renewed. If Ukraine wants to broach the issue of price, it must carefully consider the structure of ownership, transportation clauses, also the long-term obligations concerning use of gas transportation networks; and do all this in a manner that will help Ukraine obtain a very advantageous and effective package agreement that will answer long-term market principles.
