Are democratic forces ready to form a coalition?

Arsenii Yatseniuk, Oleksandr Turchynov, Andrii Parubii, Arsen Avakov and 12 more ranking members of the Batkivshchyna party have left it. According to Avakov, the party and some of its members disagree on further cooperation with the president: “I respect the opinion of my friends, politicians of the Batkivshchyna party, who believe that this country will benefit more from them standing in opposition to Petro Poroshenko... but in the current situation, it is wrong and unacceptable.”

Without much hype beforehand, a congress of the presidential Solidarity party was held on August 26. Delegates elected to leadership Lutsenko and renamed the party the Poroshenko Block. The congress listened to the president’s speech as well, as he called on all democratic forces to unite in a coalition before the parliamentary elections.

Therefore, what is the significance of and relation between these two events? What political future will these politicians opt for? The Day posed these questions to political analyst Mykhailo BASARAB.

“Rumors have long had Yatseniuk, Turchynov, Avakov, and Parubii cooperating to establish a new political grouping. These rumors are well-grounded, and their decision to leave the Batkivshchyna is yet another confirmation of this. This grouping will participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections either as an independent political project, or as part of a broad Poroshenko-led political force, united under the Solidarity’s umbrella. These politicians do not intend to be content with a peripheral role in Poroshenko’s party, because they have ambitions of their own and demand government positions, a quota on the party list, etc. I do not rule out that they may fail to agree with Poroshenko as they are quite self-sufficient, and, although they declare their loyalty to the president, can still have independent stances. Yatseniuk will claim the post of prime minister, and Poroshenko is reportedly not ready to guarantee him this portfolio. In general, we may come to see some very unexpected decisions and alliances, for absolutely all political forces and their leaders are actively negotiating today.

“When Yulia Tymoshenko tried to create an alliance with Yatseniuk or conducted negotiations with other political actors, she envisioned herself as the prime minister. That is why she insists on independent stance and a degree of opposition to Poroshenko, so as to try and create an alternative to the presidential majority in parliament.

“The Yatseniuk group’s exit and the Solidarity congress are parallel processes. Lutsenko’s election to the leadership of the Solidarity was predictable because he was considered a disciplined member of the incumbent president’s team. Poroshenko can rely on him, and this is a proof that the party will be the main instrument for implementing the political will of the president in the new Verkhovna Rada. Negotiations between the Yatseniuk group and Solidarity are definitely held between Yatseniuk and Poroshenko, and the final word will be theirs. Lutsenko will be very limited in his actions by certain political directives of Poroshenko. Lutsenko cannot guarantee promises to the Yatseniuk group, as he is limited to executing directives.

“The fact that the Solidarity congress was held without much hype indicates that there had been many points that required further clarification before the congress. Negotiations between political actors, the president and his party continue and many details are clarified at the last minute. Politicians want to conceal from the public the organizational details, agreements, promises to one another, and because of this many congresses will take place without any additional publicity.”