Roshen chocolates lacking. Why?

Mini-Davos held in Ukraine was a success. The World Economic Forum took place here for the first, but not the last time, according to the organizers.

The first day, or we should rather say night, of the Forum was opened by the Prime Minister of Ukraine Mykola Azarov. Practically the entire Cabinet of Ministers came to the official reception and attended the events of the second day of the Forum, however, there were not that many top businessmen. From the prominent Ukrainian businessmen only Oleksandr Yaroslavsky, Mykola Martynenko, and Petro Poroshenko came to the official reception. Is it something symptomatic?

Another interesting fact: for some reason the head of the NBU Ihor Sorkin sat at the table with the experts and public figures. Practically all the time he sat by the wall, as if in a reservation, and was noticeably bored. “We are now fulfilling all the obligations that we assumed before the IMF,” only this statement in response to The Day’s question brought a smile on his face. Then he asked to let him have dinner at peace.

In general, within the framework of the mini-Davos business representatives, the government, and experts gathered in one of the most expensive hotels in Kyiv to work out “three scenarios for Ukraine’s development.”

The first scenario is a scenario of the so-called extreme pessimists: there the business community, government officials, and experts considered the option of a default of Ukraine’s economy. The second – the optimistic scenario – described the rapid leap forward, which would make Ukraine one of the leading countries in terms of economic growth. And, finally, the third – the scenario of moderate realists. An informed participant of the discussion has shared that on this platform the participants discussed the possible actions, in case if Ukraine would have implemented all the necessary institutional reforms, but this would not revive the economy.

We should stress that the subjects discussed on the platforms have been recorded according to the informed source. We will be able to find out the exact topics and the subject of discussion that was held, as well as the decisions that have been made at the Forum only in January 2014 at the final meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos (Switzerland). The results of the discussions held in working groups in Kyiv will be presented there. This time the organizers set categorical conditions to the participants – sessions are held in “off records” format without journalists.

COMMENTARIES

Geoffrey R. PYATT, the US Ambassador to Ukraine:

“I am actually happy to talk about World Economic Forum. I think, first of all, you read my speech in Kyiv Mohyla and I made a point there about the importance of understanding Ukraine in the context of the globalized economy and the importance of having a wider debate inside Ukraine that has broader future horizons and reflects the opportunities that Ukraine enjoys today.

“I was very impressed by the president’s speech, I thought it was an excellent presentation of the variety of issues and opportunities for Ukraine, touching on everything from climate to shale gas, to agriculture and technology cooperation. I thought it was a very sophisticated, globally-attuned presentation of Ukraine’s security interests. I think it’s very healthy that we have the kind of debate that we had this morning.

“Thinking about the global scenarios that are going to impinge on Ukraine’s future and the choices and opportunities that Ukraine possesses. And I appreciated also President Yanukovych’s presentation of the geographic opportunities Ukraine enjoys. Ukraine is both the Eastern frontier of the European economics base, but also Europe’s gateway to Eurasia, so linking, the connective tissue between Eurasia and Europe. And I also appreciated his approach to North-South axis. So I applaud World Economic Forum for putting together some very solid speakers, I applaud the organizers and the sponsors for catalyzing this kind of debate. I believe that more of this kind of discussion is very good for Ukraine and good for Ukraine-US relations. You know I’m going to take the optimistic scenario.”

William Green MILLER, former US Ambassador to Ukraine (1993-98), Woodrow Wilson International Center for scholars:

“This conference lays out the possibilities and the scenario approach which dominates, not actually the human behavior. And the key questions that face Ukraine are deeply personal questions that affect the nature of the Ukrainian political leadership and the entire nation knows this. Europe knows this. Russia knows this.

“Long-term, I think, Ukraine’s future is bright, very bright. I’ve always thought so. It has all of the components that are necessary for economic success. And if we look into the future, the world will need the agricultural production of Ukraine, this will be the greatest resource along with the intellectual capital that the nation already has and will continue to have because of the nature of the Ukrainian people. However, the prospects for the aspirations of the educated next generations have to be met and they are not being met. Not yet. That’s your job and the job of your children. And they will benefit. I think, in some the prospects despite the complications of political personalities and the legacies of the recent history, that the outcome for Ukraine will be very bright.”

Jorge ZUKOSKI, President at American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine:

“I think the president really clearly and succinctly summed up where Ukraine needs to be and how, under his leadership, Ukraine is going to be moving towards signing the Association Agreement and the DCFTA and taking advantage of the opportunities for the economy and for Ukraine and her people that the Association with the European Union will provide, as well as access to the largest market in the world. We, the business community that gathered here today, were very much positively impressed by his comments and we look forward the Association Agreement being signed at the end of November.”

What would you say about the participation of the government representatives in the debate after the president’s speech, their vision of the advancement towards the EU?

“Well, I think both the representatives of government and those in opposition are all very clear in the fact that everyone is embracing Ukraine’s European choice. And I think we are in a very difficult macroeconomic situation. The impression that I have is that the leadership understands that and understands the importance of effectively addressing the macroeconomic situation to ensure that there’s stability in the economy. It’s beneficial for the business community, it’s beneficial for an average Ukrainian. So, at the end of the day, I’m felling optimistic that they are moving towards finding a solid solution.”

Many people might say that this is just empty talk, and, in fact, is the business climate in Ukraine improving?

“Well, here’s what I see. As an example with the World Bank Doing Business ratings, Ukraine performed better than any other country in the world and we are very pleased about that. We believe that this improvement is directly correlatable to the fact that the business and government have been working together in partnership. And you hear the president talk about the importance of partnership. The business, policy makers, and government are working together in partnership to create good legislation regulations. That’s important, and this is why we went up in the World Bank rankings and that’s important. Now here is the challenge for Ukraine moving forward, the challenge is to properly enforce the good legislation so that the regulations are on the books, to have to strengthen the rule of law and, as the president talked about today, to reduce corruption. The president really needs to take a leadership role in reducing, in aggressively and systemically rooting out corruption in all levels of society, in all levels of government. If that takes place and that takes place soon, the economic benefits for Ukraine will be amazing.”

Which of the three suggested scenarios do you consider to be the most realistic for Ukraine?

“The scenario that I am hoping for is the scenario where Ukraine: number one, signs the Association Agreement and DCFTA; number two, further diversifies the economy, adding to the traditional export commodity based economy new components such as High Tech, Research and Development, food processing. Adding extra value creates jobs, it creates economic growth, it creates wealth for the nation. That helps to also alleviate the risks that come from an economy that is very relying upon export commodity prices. So, this is the scenario that I see, this is the scenario that I think is the best for Ukraine. And that the third part of that scenario is ensuring that the institutions in Ukraine are strong, that we have rule of law, that the judiciary works, that we’ve rooted out corruption or, at least, are effectively addressing that corruption in a credible manner. If we add all of those components into the mix, Ukraine will only be successful in the future and will take its rightful place in the global community.”

In your opinion, will the voice of the international business community be heard in Brussels and will the EU sign the Association Agreement with Ukraine?

“We, as an organization, are very much advocating for the signing of the Association Agreement. We look at it as if it is the future of Ukraine. I believe that signing of the Association Agreement is critical success factor for the future. And doing so will show the donor community, such as the International Monetary Fund, the European Union, the United States government, and other governments that are important for Ukraine, that Ukraine is moving down the correct path. It will help to unlock the macroeconomic stability of loans and financial facilities. All of that is incredibly important for Ukraine to be successful in the future.”

In your opinion, what are the chances of signing the Association Agreement: 90-100 percent?

“I’m going to say 100 percent. I believe at the end of the day it is the right decision, it is the only decision, and if Ukraine doesn’t make that, if Ukraine and the EU can’t find that decision together, we are going to have a very difficult future.”

By Mykola SIRUK, The Day