European Missile Defense: an impetus from Poland

European Missile Defense (EMD) appears to have got its second wind. Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski recently made a statement about amendments to the law on the modernization of the armed forces. This initiative is meant to enhance the Polish national missile defense system.

Warsaw thus intends to uphold President Bush’s policy aimed at deploying 10 GBI interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar station in the Czech Republic, in order to protect the US and Europe against attacks by the problem countries (e.g., Iraq, Iran, Libya, and Syria). Agreements to this effect were signed on July 9 and August 14, 2008. The program was meant to be completed in 2014-16.

EMD has experienced a number of ups and downs, with Russia invariably throwing monkey wrenches in the works, accusing the US of forcing the arms race. The Kremlin also warned that if the above missile defense elements were placed in Europe, Russia would deploy Iskander missile systems in Kaliningrad oblast.

The 44th US President, Democrat Barack Obama, changed the situation somewhat. He proved more flexible than his predecessor, although his reload policy toward Russia offended Poland and the Czech Republic. Obama discarded the idea of deploying missiles and radar in Europe and proposed a mobile ground and sea missile defense system that would cover all Europe.

Russia, however, was not content and President Dmitry Medvedev proposed a joint missile defense system at NATO’s Lisbon summit in 2010, but met a definite refusal.

Right after the summit, Raisa Bohatyriova, Secretary of National Security and Defense Council, declared: “Ukraine has demonstrated its desire to join the construction of the European missile defense system and offer its services as an observer, a move indicative of Ukraine’s practical participation in EMD.” A bit later, NSDC Deputy Secretary Stepan Havrysh “edited” her statement: While wishing to cooperate with NATO, Ukraine is “promoting strategic cooperation with Russia.” The consequences of this cooperation are common knowledge.

EMD has received a fresh impetus from Poland. Below The Day’s experts comment on Warsaw’s move and its impact on the relations with Moscow.

UKRAINE CAN ONLY OFFER ITS TERRITORY FOR EMD DEPLOYMENT

Hryhorii PEREPELYTSIA, Ph.D. (Politics), lecturer, Taras Shevchenko National University (Kyiv):

“This move shows that Poland is concerned about national security. Poles supported Bush’s initiative but it was never implemented. Obama has returned to the idea of deploying missile defense systems in Europe. In fact, Poland is serving its national defense interests. First, this will strengthen the Polish defenses, considering that the previous agreement with the US envisaged the deployment of EMD elements and sale and transfer of the Patriot air and missile defense system.

“Poland is thus trying to enhance its air defense. On the one hand, Poland and the Baltic states are afraid of Russia’s growing military potential. On the other hand, there is no modern NATO defense infrastructure along the Alliance’s borders because NATO has expanded along the political, not military lines, by accepting new member countries, without deploying any EMD elements in these countries to secure them against Russia’s aggression. In other words, the political commitments laid down in Article 5 [of the Washington Treaty] were not supplemented by NATO military plans to defend the countries bordering on the Russian Federation. The Baltic states are alarmed by Russian war planes entering their air space and NATO had to put its forces there on alert.

“The deployment of EMD elements in Poland will help build the defense infrastructure. These elements are not offensive weapons, they are meant only to protect against missile attack. This brings Poland closer to the US… and will help strengthen their relationships as partners and military allies.

“Regrettably, those ‘upstairs’ in Ukraine can draw no conclusions from this, although the NSDC has considered Ukraine’s participation in EMD. Interviewed, its leadership makes it clear that Ukraine can only act as a subcontractor if and when Russia signs contracts for the construction of such missile defense elements. In this case the Ukrainian people will be regarded – even by the Ukrainian political leadership – as a segment of the Russian side.

“Ukraine has nothing to offer Europe. Ukraine won’t be admitted to that cooperation because it represents part of the Russian projects. Ukraine as such is not interesting for Europe or NATO in terms of military and technological cooperation. Ukrainian technologies are dramatically obsolete. The only thing Ukraine can do is follow in Poland’s footsteps and offer its territory for EMD deployment. However, this option seems highly unlikely, even as a hypothesis.

“EMD deployment in Poland will doubtlessly sharpen the relations with Russia, but by making this move Warsaw has identified Russia’s potential military threat as superior to the risk of aggravating political and diplomatic relations.”

EMD HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH DEFENSE

Igor KOROTCHENKO, director, Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade:

“We don’t care about the statements of today’s Polish leadership. We will pass our judgment considering the end result, whether or not this will be a threat to our strategic armed forces. For the time being, we proceed from the fact that the deployment on Polish territory of SM-3 Aegis interceptor missiles, starting in 2017, will threaten our national interests. Within this period Russia will take appropriate measures on its western border, primarily by deploying Iskander missile systems for pre-emptive strikes in wartime against EMD targets, including those in Poland. In fact, Russia’s stand on the matter remains unchanged.

“So Poland doesn’t want to legislatively provide for the deployment of EMD elements, so what? Poland lacks the technological potential for a national missile defense system. It will be either by purchasing certain weapons systems or deploying them under US control. Therefore, we proceed from the assessments previously made by the Russian leadership. Appropriate measures will be taken against any European country that allows US missile defense deployment, if the General Staff decides that this poses a threat to Russia. Whichever way Poland does this [i.e., EMD deployment], by having the bill passed by the Sejm or by a unilateral decision, makes no difference to Russia.

“How will this tell on the relations between the two countries? We assess military risks in the first place. The deployment of EMD in Poland will be a challenge to the Russian Federation’s military security. We are not making any problems for Poland. Poland is making them for itself and its military security, by placing these targets in the sights of Russian Iskanders. If Poland wants these problems, that’s its sovereign right. Russia will not twiddle its thumbs, looking on as a potential will be created that will constitute a potential threat to its strategic and nuclear forces. It will take measures in response. Russia isn’t threatening anyone.

“EMD has nothing to do with defense. North Korea, given its technological progress, will not be able to develop a missile capable of reaching Europe in the next 200 years. Therefore, the North Korean missile threat is a myth, bluff. The same is true of Iran. For the next 25 years it won’t have the potential to make a rocket that will fly as far as Europe. The best its rocket scientists can do is develop a missile deterrent potential. Iran has no plans for a big ballistic missile, let alone for launching missiles to Europe.

“In regard to other countries, when NATO says that 30 or 28 states pose a missile threat, they are bluffing. At best some of them can have obsolete Soviet SKAD-type missiles with a range of several hundred kilometers. There is no missile threat for Europe. Our conclusion is that EMD is being built as a deterrent against Russia’s strategic and nuclear potential.”

MORE LIKE A NATIONAL AIR AND MISSILE DEFENSE

Jacek DURKALEC, analyst, Polish Institute of International Relations:

“On the one hand, this is NATO’s missile defense system that involves the European Union. Poland is trying to build a small- and medium-range missile defense system, so this is more like a national missile defense system.

“The reason for this initiative is that the post-Soviet Polish air defense systems meet almost no modern technological standards, whereas at least one missile defense system is a priority in the development of the Polish armed forces.

“Poland is unable to build such a system unaided; Polish production facilities aren’t adequately equipped, so we have to rely on other countries. For example, we could buy US Patriot, French Aster or Israeli missile defense systems. In fact, France has started cooperating with Poland to build a radar system as part of the future EMD. At this stage it is unclear what kind of system Poland will choose.

“The presence of such EMD elements is very important for the protection of the strategic environment against missile threats. Besides, these are both missile and air defense systems. They serve to enhance the air and missile defenses. So what we‘re talking about is more like a national air and missile defense system. We hear about this system as a deterrent against the Russian missiles deployed at Kaliningrad, but I don’t think so.”